Sinn Féin well placed to take two Mayo seats

Snow, snow, beautiful, glorious snow. Wasn’t it lovely to see the soft, white, large flakes of snow begin to fall on Wednesday evening last? 

RTÉ and the Met Office had been issuing warnings, orange and yellow, for the southern half of the country and I feared we here in Mayo were to be left out. I felt a twinge of envy for the Kerry, Cork, Clare and Waterford people and indeed for Galway since they were forecast to suffer the brunt of the icy, snow-laden blasts from the north.

Once RTÉ got word that the snow was already falling in Mayo they caught up with the snow and predicted that Mayo would be hit. Some prediction. We were at yellow warning levels within minutes, by which time there was already two inches of the most beautiful, crisp white coat of unblemished snow carpeting my driveway, lawn, trees (a carpet covering oak, beech, birch and palm is a bit of a contradiction, but sure what the hell, God’s in his heaven, all’s well with the world and the snow is falling). 

And it continued through the night, such that the skylights allowed no light in, the hallway was pitch black, the silence was golden as no traffic flowed until the council gritter showed the way with its golden, yellow, swirling warning light throwing an amber hue on the otherwise bright, white snowy scene.

Then came the early morning bread delivery men (ladies?), tradespeople (I find it difficult to be politically correct) and labourers, slowly making their snail-like way to work and disturbing the silence and the sleep of the slumbering older folk, the retired and the work-from-home generation still wrapped up snugly in their four-tog duvets of white duck feathers and down. And, as the dawn creeps in to take the crisp sharpness off the landscape, there follows the noise, the intrusive noise, of the trucks, the mini-mix marvels, the 32-wheeler high-sided SuperValu delivery vehicles, the construction industry on the way to make more houses before the end of the calendar year so as to massage the figures for affordable homes before Santa calls. At least the school buses have the sense to stay at home.

Once the traffic begins to flow - and it is not long before it is a constant stream - there is no point in continuing the snuggle and wrestling with the duvet. “Be always up and doing boys” was the exhortation that reverberated through the national school system of the dim and distant (though not forgotten) past and God help the students who failed to respond to the sage advice of their masters. While the weak-willed may have lingered a little longer, the “up and doing” lads hit the floor for a morning of calisthenics and/or Pilates as the more mature people settled for some genteel stretching and toe-tipping and groaning as muscles reacted to the stress of infrequently used postures. (Now, if you believe that last scenario you should perhaps have a chat with your counsellor!) 

The beautiful idyll of snow-white nirvana on the main road is quickly turned to slush as the reality of work in this island of full employment hits home. Two makeshift lanes, one going north and one going south, form in the snow as the wheels churn the pristine whiteness into a watery grey slush and spray it to alternate sides, forming long high furrows to block driveways and imprison the silent sufferers in their homes. Smoke, curtesy of the dye-back ash, starts to curl from chimneys not quite used to such an early incendiary jolt. Things settle down and life goes on. The time for standing and staring gives way to the important (?) matter of government.

The election

There is the enigma of trying to fit 16 candidates into five Mayo seats and it falls to columnists such as my good self to try to predict the volatility of an electorate that is careful, cute, canny, cautious and tight as a clam when expressing a preference in terms of number one, two, three, flour and five. So in order to work the oracle and predict the future it is necessary, strange as it might seem, to look back. The last Independent TD in Mayo was Jerry Cowley. That was in 2002 and he served until 2007. He tried unsuccessfully to return to the Dáil. Mayo is not known as Independent territory. Beverley Flynn also served as an Independent but she had been elected for Fianna Fáil and many in the party remained with her when she was banished to the Independent benches for the 2007 election. 

Fine Gael has dominated Mayo for the past two decades, winning an unprecedented four seats out of five in 2011. They were disappointed when they did not take the four seats. Prior to Fine Gael becoming the dominant party, Fianna Fáil had their golden era taking four out of six (two three seaters) on a number of occasions. But, the mighty have fallen. While the two dominant parties still harbour hopes of taking two seats each in next Friday’s election the route to success is by no means clear.

There are 16 candidates declared for the five seats. The reality is that at least half of those declared do not have a chance. So, it is important that we salute all of those who have put their names forward, especially those who don’t have the proverbial snowball’s. The also rans play their role in the democratic system. They are vital to it. They provide the electorate, who may be fed up with the so called major parties, with choice.

As well as FG/FFers we now have, in Sinn Féin, a viable party of change. If we are to believe the polls Sinn Féin have shot their bolt and perhaps they have nationwide, but they are in with a chance of two Mayo seats. In outgoing TD they have the impressive Rose Conway-Walsh while Cllr Gerry Murray is a proven vote-getter who has built up a solid base in his east Mayo stronghold. They are strategically well placed at opposite ends of the county so it is easy to draw the line within which each can battle for their votes.

Fine Gael have adopted what many see as a risky strategy, running four candidates. Past election results suggest that Fine Gael can elect two, if not three candidates, but those results were, to a large extent, based on three highly popular and respected vote getters - Enda Kenny, Michael Ring and the late John O’Mahony - none of whom are in the field. It will be interesting to see how that works out on Count Day.

Fianna Fáil is running two candidates, outgoing Dara Calleary and Senator Lisa Chambers, hoping to win two seats. It is a ploy that may work but it suggests a lack of ambition. The results of the most recent elections suggest they are being realistic. The party seems to have a greater number of workers on the ground than in recent elections and that may bring a change but they will have to get a huge boost in numbers… not something that is likely if there is a demand for change.

It is unlikely that Aontú’s Paul Lawless can win a seat this time around and, of the Independents, Cllrs Patsy O’Brien and Chris Maxwell have the best credentials. O’Brien, a disaffected Fine Gael councillor, had an impressive tally of 2,700 first preference votes in the recent local election. In the absence of Michael Ring, he would hope to significantly improve on those numbers, but he has a lot of building to do.

Maxwell is a former Fianna Fáil local election candidate who had his Road to Damascus moment prior to the last local elections. He has moved a little to the right and runs as an Independent Ireland candidate. He had an impressive outing in the council elections, gathering over 1,700 first preferences, but there’s a long, long way from there to the Dáil.

You know I don’t have much faith in the polls so I don’t have to wait for the next load of blather (think Trump!) to come out over the remaining days before polling. Here is my prediction (with more than a week to go): two FG (Alan Dillon and Mark Duffy); two Sinn Féin (Rose Conway Walsh and Gerry Murray) and one FF (Dara Calleary). The count will be eagerly awaited.

Thought for the Day 

The only infallible rule we know is, that the man who is always talking about being a gentleman never is one.

- R.S. Surtees ( Ask Mamma)