An apology for a wrong election prediction

I take my election duties seriously. I’m not necessarily motivated by the argument that men and women died so that we, the comfortable and entitled generation, might have the vote but a nod of appreciation in their direction every now and again is no harm. 

No, I vote because I think my vote is important. At the end of the day my vote might not elect any candidate as a TD, but that is not the point. The point is that I feel I have a duty to make this very small contribution that is expected of me every couple of years. The taking part is the vital contribution, not the outcome.

And so, on Friday morning, early, I took myself off to Cuilmore National School, the alma mater of Jason Doherty and James Moylette, footballers extraordinaire, amongst others and had a bounce (well sort of!) in my step on my way to the colourful and inviting building. Once inside it became clear why children nowadays do not have the same dread of school as we did in generations past. 

There is something about a school classroom that is distinctive and I think it is the smell. The smell of chalk, perhaps. Whatever it is, or was, it was reminiscent of times past. Good times mostly. That’s the problem with nostalgia, it is mostly about good times. The bad times are hidden or, most probably, deliberately stored in the dark and dim recesses of the mind.

On this occasion, of course, it was not the teacher welcoming us but two very young (everyone looks young at my age) looking, alert and beaming polling clerks, a young lady and an equally young male, both probably students and both probably much in need of the few euros they earned for their sixteen-hour long day. Throw in a bit of coming and going and they were probably engaged in election duties for up to twenty hours. 

At ten o’clock in the morning, with three hours behind them, they were polite and efficient, the lady clerk stroking off my name on the register and the man carefully detaching the polling paper to hand to me and then it was away to the sanctuary of the booth to register my preferences on the sixteen name long list, with colour photos thanks to Castlebar’s Ernie Sweeney.

It seems to me that the contribution of polling clerks to the electoral process is often underestimated. It is by its nature a tedious job on a long boring day. The clerks are probably trained not to engage with electors but at the same time to be helpful, friendly, polite and smiling. Not easy for sixteen hours on the trot. Try it yourself, sometime! So, on your behalf, I take my hat off to the polling clerks of this country.

I’ve taken a bit of time to get to the meat of the column and probably that has to do with the fact that I made such a dog’s dinner of my prediction of the outcome in last week’s column. Two Sinn Féin, two Fine Gael, and one Fianna Fáil was my prediction, if you need reminding. People generally and columnists particularly are slow to admit when they have got it wrong and even slower to tender apologies.

And so, first and foremost, I must apologise to Gerry Murray. Against all the odds, I had elevated him to the Dáil. It was the commentator’s curse, the Judas kiss, coming into play at a critical time in the election. In making that prediction I was not privy to any Sinn Féin insight. I wasn’t overwhelmed by Mary Lou and was even less impressed by the polling data that continued to be churned out and continued to be even more confusing and unhelpful than ever. Polls are banned for two days before the day of the election because it is feared that they might have and undue influence on the outcome. It is my considered opinion that they should be banned for two months before polling day.

In elevating Gerry my thought was that the sensible people of East Mayo, deprived of a TD since John O’Mahony and before him John Carty and Jim Higgins, would opt for a credible and earnest public representative, such as Gerry Murray, to represent them. Clearly, I have a higher opinion of the intellect of the East Mayo voting public than they are entitled to.

I wouldn’t mind but I had been warned. I have a source deep within Fine Gael - a deep throat, if you will - who confidently predicted that the party would win three seats in Mayo. I dismissed the thought on the basis of my misplaced faith in the people of East Mayo.

The second apology must go to Keira Keogh and, in particular, to Michael Ring whose influence on his electorate I hugely underestimated. Post last week’s prediction, I also became aware of the energetic, enthusiastic, youthful and confident team of supporters on the canvas for Keira Keogh (who says young people are not interested in politics? Give them a reason and they will soon get involved).

I also overestimated the Fine Gael support for their recently enlisted candidate Mark Duffy in Ballina. Duffy had the credentials to challenge for a seat as an Independent, he fell well below expectations as a Fine Gael candidate. Perhaps there was an element of opposition by the diehards against this 'blow-in'. I suspect there may be an inquisition into the Fine Gael strategy in respect of the pursuit and endorsement of Duffy. We will have to wait and see.

It is now clear that I also underestimated the chances of Aontú’s Paul Lawless and Independent Patsy O’Brien. While I allowed for both to do well I did not expect them to be in the reckoning for a seat. They too proved me wrong not that they will be bothered. But it is appropriate that I acknowledge my inability to properly interpret what appears in my crystal ball. The only consolation that I can offer myself is that I did get it right in respect of half the field. Congratulations to Mayo’s team. I’m confident they will do us proud.

It will be some time before we have a government. The expectation by the experts, and clearly that does not include me after my spectacular fall from prediction perfection, is that we will have a Fianna Fáil-led government with Fine Gael in tow and the support of, most likely, a group of Independents. Fianna Fáil, if they get the expected eight/ten seat advantage, will have a problem keeping Fine Gael on board unless they can show magnanimity to the Simon Harris team.

Micheál Martin may well be in generous mood but he will have to keep some rebellious and overly ambitious backbench troops in check. There are numerous TDs, in both parties, who will have an inflated opinion of their worth and who will seek advancement, only to discover that there are not enough places at Cabinet to meet demand. The allocation of positions will not meet with immediate rebellion. The disappointed will bide their time and snipe away as time goes by. I don’t see a comfortable fiveyear duration for this new government. I hope I’m wrong. This is a prediction that I would not mind having to apologise for.

Thought for the day 

Glacann fear ciallmhar comhairle... or as we say in the second official language, a wise man is open to advice.