Will more now play the waiting game in search for Sam?

The year is 2032.

The train now runs from Claremorris to Athenry. You can fly from Knock Airport to the USA daily. Daniel Wiffen says he’ll swim to Brisbane to pick up his latest Olympic medals. And Kevin McStay is still manager of the Mayo senior football team.

Who’s to know how much of that, if any, will ring true eight years from now. Some might say Wiffen swimming from Down to Down Under is the most likely. (Sorry Dan, I know you’ve set us straight on your postal situation but Armagh has no coastline and it just didn’t sound as punchy anyway).

But it’s a question that probably deserves some consideration in the wake of Kieran McGeeney’s 10 year trophyless reign with Armagh before becoming an All-Ireland SFC winning manager: how would it sit if you were told this week that Mayo would embark on the 2032 inter-county senior football campaign with Kevin McStay still in charge, with not a single Connacht SFC title won under his watch and the county’s All-Ireland famine now extended to 81 years. For it’s a very similar situation that McGeeney and Armagh found themselves in at the start of this season.

In some ways, Kieran McGeeney’s situation was more dire. Yes, the county’s last All-Ireland victory was much more recent so the weight of history not so heavy, but Armagh – despite lifting Sam Maguire last Sunday week – have still to win their own provincial championship in 16 years and whereas Kevin McStay guided Mayo to win the 2023 National Football League Division 1 title in his first season in charge, the All-Ireland, incredibly, was McGeeney’s first trophy of any descript in his decade spent managing his native county. More than that, it was on his guard that they were relegated from Division 2, spent three years out of four in Division 3, and from 2015 and 2018 lost every one of their games in the Ulster Championship.

What happened a week or so ago then, was some reward for the patience displayed by the officers of Armagh County Board and, in particular, that of the clubs, who only last autumn voted in favour of McGeeney remaining in charge. Would they be champions now without him?

A hypothetical extension to my earlier question is how would it sit if you were told this week that Mayo would embark on the 2032 inter-county senior football campaign with Kevin McStay still in charge, knowing the year would conclude with Mayo finally ending its wait to win the All-Ireland SFC title?

Could you wait that long – or are you more the gambling sort who would rather not know such fate but take a chance instead that Mayo might lift Sam Maguire, with or without McStay, in the intervening eight years?

Kieran McGeeney’s longevity is now unrivalled in the modern world of inter-county management; Colm Collins had spent 10 years in charge of the Clare footballers before stepping away in 2023 which leaves McGeeney’s pal, Pádraic Joyce, manager of this year’s beaten finalists Galway, as the next longest-serving senior football manager in the country, having taken the reigns of his native county in late 2019. Whether Joyce has the appetite for a sixth season in charge of the Tribesmen (John O’Mahony did seven but won two All-Irelands during the first four) remains to be seen, particularly with Galway having lost two of the last three finals, but his spirit and passion would leave you to suspect he’d hate to leave some unfinished business behind.

And yet you could argue that the managerial careers of Kieran McGeeney and Pádraic Joyce remain only in their infancy, especially when compared to the astounding 24 years that Brian Cody managed the Kilkenny hurlers, or the 23 years that Sean Boylan managed Meath’s footballers, or the 17 years that Mickey Harte spent in charge of Tyrone which, despite all his success, was longer than many within his own county even felt he deserved.

The difference with Cody and Harte, however, was how quickly into their reigns they delivered All-Ireland glory – Cody’s first of 11 All-Ireland SHC titles came in year two of his management while Mickey Harte landed Sam Maguire at the very first attempt and won three in his first five years. Not bad for a county who before that had never won one.

Sean Boylan, however, required four years to assemble and prepare a team good enough just to win a Leinster SFC, but once the damn burst a flood of silverware followed. In the Dunboyne man’s fifth year at the helm, Meath would win their first of the four All-Ireland SFC titles they annexed between 1987 and 1999 – not bad for a county who had only won three in the previous 100 years. The Royals would also pick up three National Football League titles under Boylan’s watch so it’s no wonder he was so fondly embraced by each and every one of Meath’s Jubilee (1999) team when they were presented to the crowd at last month’s All-Ireland final in Croke Park.

Not since Boylan had any inter-county football manager been given so long before winning their first All-Ireland SFC crown, until McGeeney finally delivered for Armagh this year.

Three years was as long as it had taken Billy Morgan to get Cork across the line in 1989. Pete McGrath didn’t even need that when guiding Down to glory in 1991 and while Brian McEniff had managed Donegal previously, he was only three years into his latest stint when guiding the Tir Chonaill county to an historic first title in 1992. That was as long as it had taken Eamon Coleman to manufacture what remains Derry’s only All-Ireland win. Their fellow Ulstermen Joe Kernan and Jim McGuinness would also waste no time in blazing trails with Armagh and Donegal.

Kerry have almost always got an instant bounce off a new manager but after Pat O’Neill oversaw the 1995 triumph of Dublin in his third and final year in charge, a plethora of subsequent Dublin appointees never survived not delivering inside their first few seasons, namely Tommy Carr, Tommy Lyons and Pillar Caffrey. Where they failed, Pat Gilroy, Jim Gavin and Dessie Farrell flourished.

The moral of the story is that while winning a first All-Ireland beyond three years of being appointed as manager is a rarity, Kieran McGeeney has offered proof that it is by no means impossible. But, of course, if patience were a sport, Mayo would be Olympic champions.

See you in 2032.