Middle third will decide Mayo's fate

If Mayo’s senior footballers are going to defeat red-hot favourites Galway next Sunday they will have to do something they haven’t done in the Connacht championship to date: kick a two-pointer. Or, preferably, a few of them.

It is somewhat astonishing to learn that of the seven teams who have contested the provincial championship in Connacht only Mayo have failed to score a two-pointer, either from a placed ball or open play. New York, London and Leitrim, who have all only played one game, have scored two-pointers while Roscommon and Galway have raised orange flags in both of their games. Inexplicably, Mayo have yet to register their first championship two-pointer (or at least that's what my stats are telling me!)

We saw at the weekend the importance of the two-pointer in the modern game as Meath pulled off one of the biggest shocks in modern GAA history by ending Dublin’s 14-year unbeaten run in the Leinster Championship. Eight of Meath’s 23-point total came from two-pointers. That’s four long-distance kicks for the equivalent of almost three goals.

Think about how hard it is to create a goal chance in the modern game and then consider what the two-pointer offers. Yes, it is a difficult skill to put the ball over the bar from distance, but surely it is one that is now worth perfecting? The two-pointer can be the greatest weapon an underdog possesses because it completely negates the well-organised, watertight defence that is so often the foundation of the top teams.

The great Dublin side of the past 14 years were known for their attacking flair but they also had a formidable defence – or at least they did from the moment Jim McGuinness’ Donegal ripped them to shreds in the All-Ireland semi-final in 2014. The Mayo team of the same era was also brilliant defensively. Lee Keegan was an outstanding attacking half-back but he was, first and foremost, one of the best man-markers in the country. It was rare to see Mayo or Dublin concede three goals in a game but would they have given up four two-pointers? Quite possibly and that’s where the new rules in Gaelic football offer far more opportunities to underdogs who are willing to be brave. Meath were brave on Sunday and they got their reward. Mayo need to do something similar next Sunday.

One of the criticisms of Mayo during the National League was that they seemed to be struggling to adapt to the new rules. That was certainly the case in the opening three games but the shackles came off somewhat at half-time in Armagh in mid-February and they certainly became a more attacking, free-scoring team for the remainder of the league – or at least until the final against Kerry.

That underwhelming performance in Croke Park seems to have followed the team back to Connacht and their two displays against Sligo and Leitrim have left a lot to be desired. The best that can be said is that Mayo have got the job done but Sligo could easily have taken them to extra-time and Leitrim exposed weaknesses around the middle third. If young Barry McNulty can win Man of the Match on a losing Leitrim team what will the likes of Paul Conroy, John Maher, Céin Darcy, et al, do next Sunday if they get the freedom of MacHale Park?

It's stating the blindingly obvious that Mayo need the best performance of Kevin McStay’s three-year reign as manager next Sunday. Galway are deservedly the strong favourites after an impressive semi-final victory over Roscommon, which was achieved without several key players. Indeed, on the basis of their respective semi-finals, Mayo would be lucky to hold Galway until half-time in this game.

But we know from past experience that when Mayo and Galway meet in the championship there is rarely more than a few points between them. There have, of course, been years where one side or the other enjoyed total dominance but these are the exception and I may have to eat my words but I don’t think next Sunday will be one of them.

It’s hard to see this Mayo team rolling over in MacHale Park and allowing their oldest and fiercest rivals to easily complete a rare four-in-a-row. Only a year ago, there was a point between these teams in Pearse Stadium and referee David Gough has since admitted he was mistaken in awarding that winning last-minute free to Galway. The Mayo lads have plenty of motivation for revenge before we even get to the issue of the four-in-a-row, which Galway haven’t achieved since way back in 1966.

The big question for the Mayo supporters is what kind of team will turn up next Sunday. With no disrespect to Sligo or Leitrim, who exited the championship with a huge amount of credit, Kevin McStay and Stephen Rochford must have been eyeing a Connacht Final against Galway since these fixtures were announced several months ago. They have had ample time to prepare and while there are still a few long-term injury concerns, the management retains almost all of the key personnel from last year. Admittedly, it may have been difficult to prepare a tactical plan from a long way out because nobody knew the impact of the new rules but McStay and Co have seen enough of Galway between the league and championship to know where the danger lies.

Galway’s victory over Roscommon was rooted in total dominance of the middle third and, in particular, aerial dominance. They ruled the skies over Salthill and, consequently, forwards like Rob Finnerty had a field day. Mayo have enough big men around the middle third to offer a stern resistance to this Galway team. Pressure needs to be put on goalkeeper Conor Gleeson in much the same way as Meath made life so uncomfortable for Stephen Cluxton last Sunday. Gleeson was able to pick out players at ease against Roscommon but he cannot be afforded that luxury in Castlebar. If Mayo pressurise the Galway kickout and break even at midfield they stand a decent chance of bringing this game right down to the wire and anything can happen in the final chaotic minutes – as Mayo discovered to their cost last year.

There is no doubt that there is a prevailing sense of gloom among many Mayo supporters at the moment but it will be hugely disappointing if there isn’t a massive crowd in MacHale Park next Sunday. The weather forecast is good, it’s a Bank Holiday weekend and this is a young Mayo team that deserves as much support as possible. What an occasion it will be if Mayo defy the odds and defeat a Galway team who are among the favourites for Sam Maguire. This is the first time the two sides have met in a Connacht Final at MacHale Park since 2014 so this will be a first-in-a-lifetime experience for many young Mayo fans.

As previously stated, this is a big game for the Mayo management team because they need a performance at the very least. Galway are an exceptional side - and one only has to look at the quality on their bench to realise that – so nobody will criticise Mayo if they lose a well-contested game. But we need to see a lot more from Kevin McStay’s team than anything we have witnessed so far this year. And, yes, we could do with seeing a few two-pointers because that would suggest that Mayo have finally thrown the shackles off and are moving away from the conservative, back-and-over handpassing game that has left so many supporters disillusioned in the past couple of years.

Like Meath, Mayo will need to be brave and bold next Sunday. It should be a much closer game than many people are predicting.