The certainty of uncertainty

Thanks to Trump we live in Orwellian times. Kelly Anne Conway, his former advisor, helped set the template when she invented the term ‘alternative facts’. Another word for lies. Orwell foresaw this in his book 1984 with the quote “The past was erased, the erasure was forgotten, the lie became truth.” So when we have events like solving the blocking by the Iranians of the Gulf of Hormuz by blocking the same Gulf, this time by America, man we have problems.

At a time when Manchester United and Leeds United, Bon Jovi, Leinster, Munster, Pittsburgh Steelers and Katie Taylor will play more times in Croke Park, the home of the GAA, than most of Ireland’s 32 counties, then things have changed.

That the Orange Order was compared to the GAA slightly jarred me. I understand the reasoning why such a thing was said but its supporters are amongst those who this month were in Belfast High Court attempting to block the use of the Irish language in Ulster. The village of Clough (Irish for rock) had a menacing leaflet pushed through its residents letterboxes recently, warning that “The wearing of, or any display of republican/nationalist symbols; GAA, O’Neill’s, Celtic FC clothing etc…will not be welcomed.” Its threatening tenor goes on to tell how it will respond to such ‘provocation’ in a village with an Irish name. So much for the GFA and parity of esteem. So much for politicking but comparing the GAA to the Orange Order might be a hard drink to swallow for now. Anyway, thank God for Mayo.

Whilst the world threatens to spin off its axis, Mayo is the bastion of stability and predictability. Their recent joust with Roscommon, our worst Connacht championship beating since by 16 points against Galway in 1982, this time around the Rossies stuck ten clear on us.

In fairness, the national media are very supportive of the Mayo management, essentially giving their imprimatur to this current Mayo iteration on the sideline, but the national media only stay on board if you are winning. If they feel a leak coming though the currach’s canvas, they will bail and pivot. Reading the Irish Independent GAA columnist Colm Keyes, a small subtle shift popped out. “The nature of their three defeats so far this season, in the league against Donegal and Kerry away and now Roscommon, would suggest Mayo are losing ground against the leading pack. Eight, 16 and 10 point gaps point to a team that really doesn’t know how to stem the flow when it’s going against them. Right now it feels like Mayo are in a considerably worse position than they were heading into last years qualifiers.” The honeymoon is over. The microscope’s focus is sharpening. 

So, who saw this coming? In fairness, not many. And factor in this fact: Mayo can yet win Sam this year… but I won’t hold my breath.

Joe Brolly wrote that a former Mayo star saw us taking Sam this summer after beating Dublin in the league. Now you can say what you like about Brolly or the guy’s prediction, but when I saw that giddiness on February 1st I checked my calendar that it wasn’t April 1st. Pigs flying and bearded red suited white haired men coming down chimneys in December. The Mayo team that played Dublin, two rounds into the league, already had a championship first XV about it. By the time we met the Rossies last Sunday week, only Stephen Coen was gone from the defence and Beirne, Carr and Boland from the forwards. Aidan O’Shea, Cian McHale and Donnacha McHugh were among the oncoming subs that day and all three featured against Roscommon.

Clearly we were not in experimentation mode from the off, yet the stress tests on our vehicle by Donegal and Kerry, with a cumulative -24 point deficit, went unnoticed. Or was it a case that it will be all right on the night like an amateur drama society annual play? To the casual observer, and in my case very casual nowadays, I couldn’t see what our launchpad was based upon. Nor our defence plan, nor that so called middle diamond that today has to be perpetual motion. Yes, Ryan O’Donoghue is a success at 11 but the manager’s own admission that the full-forward line of Kobe, O’Shea and McHale were essentially starved of ball was telling.

My belief is that Jordan Flynn is a midfield powerhouse and should be there, Carney a replacement coming on and if bullets are needed for the front three, then guys that can load bullets are needed in that sector to assist O’Donoghue. Playing four similar lads at 8, 9, 10 and 12 is not conducive to the Mayo style. Which leads us to the next question. What is the Mayo style?

David Moyes used to rage about the West Ham United so-called style, asking ‘What is the West Ham style? I’m a manager since 1998 and I’ve never seen it.’ Big Sam Allardyce used to say the same but there was a West Ham style created by the football academics of the early 1960s like Malcom Allison, Noel Cantwell, Dave Sexton, John Lyall, Frank O’Farrell, Malcom Musgrove, John Bond and Ron Greenwood.

From their moving of salt cellars, milk jugs and sugar bowls across tables, the likes of Moore, Peters, Hurst emerged as winning World Cup medals. The above named managers were leaders of flowing attacking attractive football. But time moved on and needs must. Big Sam and Moysey, though tactically astute and modern, are from a different era. And Mayo in a way are caught in the ‘Mayo way’ of playing football. Glimpses we saw in flashes over the decades. The more pragmatic and successful Mayo teams circa 2012-17 bought into a different game and we nearly broke the mould. Today we have slipped so far from 2017 that there is no comparison.

In trying the Mayo way, just like the West Ham way as Moyes and Sam showed, you won’t be successful. Moyes and to a lesser degree, Allardyce, flourished by adapting to the percentage game. Mirror where possible what successful teams do. Improvise and put it in the mixer when the occasion calls. Get the support base right, strength, conditioning, support, medical and nutrition. Grow it from that. Have a defensive plan. Have an attacking plan.

What’s Mayo’s defensive plan this year? I can’t see it. What’s our attacking plan? Attack, attack, attack, fire in from outside the arc and shoot on sight. But what happens when the guns are spiked, the supply lines blocked? It used to be called Plan B. It’s a plan I’ve in my seventh decade yet to see Mayo implement.

So what did I see on Sunday, April 26 that red lighted, to me, the expected outcome? As the former British PM Harold McMillan said in the early 1960s ‘events dear boy, events’, after some unexpected glitch derailed his government. History and the Rossies have a nasty habit of upsetting us. The 1970 League winning team was caught in Tuam by the Rossies first time out. The League winning team of 2001 got shafted in a Connacht final, a traumatic loss. Recently since 2019 they have done us three times in Castlebar. So they came believing and we, I, came in trepidation of them.

The other crumbs that signalled something bad was about to happen was the parade. Mayo lads were smiling and whilst not high-fiving, weren’t reading the script or the room. This was Roscommon in town who didn’t give a damn. Kobe was naturally attracting the camera, a great lad, possibly the only one who played to par on the day, and O’Shea had his arm around his shoulder. There was no need for Kobe to be minded, the lad’s fine. He worked the full-forward line alone.

Now here’s a question. We went in three points ahead at half-time. We didn’t look distressed. But what happened in the second-half was out of the Cork v Tipp playbook in last year’s All-Ireland hurling final. A total collapse. When Roscommon wiped out our lead and went three ahead, where were or what did our leadership team on the pitch do? I mean we reeked experience out there. Eight of the starting fifteen had played in All-Ireland senior finals. Two of the incoming subs too. And yet no hand went up, no steadying of the ship, no man exiting the wheelhouse and coming on to the deck and saying ‘Here, give me that rope, I’ll anchor us up in this storm.’ We were leaderless on the deck. And the sideline? 

Cast your mind back to Donegal v Mayo in last year’s championship defeat at the Hyde. A red haired half-forward called Ciaran Moore was allowed access all areas in our defence. I know, a new management team this year, but surely the sight of another red haired marauder, this time Colm Neary from Roscommon, who was cutting chunks out of our bacon, deserved attention? Taking on the half-back and full-back line, he scythed through us. Memory bank anyone? Did this happen to us before? How do we deal with it? Who puts up the hand on the pitch or on the sideline? No one.

It’s a tough gig, the interview at the end with any losing manager. We all watching know what to do but having stood on the sideline (underage) and watched the sand flow thorough my hands and unable to stop it, I sympathise. However, the higher you go, that comes priced into the gig. Andy did okay. Trying to exude calm but feeling like a man mugged of his wallet and the price of the bus home gone, he reverted to what we all would. Season one of a three year plan. Now the problem with that is this season isn’t over yet. That line could have waited until the season actually reached its full stop. Maybe redemption awaits, maybe more pain, but don’t draw the line yet.

The thing with three year terms is that they may ultimately drift into the sand after year two. Kevin McStay had a four year gig short-circuited before the end of year three. John Maughan got a three year extension in October 2004 and was gone by the following August. Boiled down, you are as safe as your last match. Keep winning and you stay on the rodeo horse, start losing and the bronco throws you off.

I’d say Roscommon supporters went away slightly worried. Whilst they might have expected a win, I don’t think they factored in a comprehensive ten point battering of Mayo. Which leaves them wondering this equation: Are they that far ahead of Mayo or are Mayo that far behind? It’s an equation many in Mayo might play around with too. It won’t get easier from hereon. The trick now is what cards to pick up.

It’s too late to shuffle the panel and pack too much. Mayo leaned heavily on its older stalwarts but it’s time for youth to be given a fling and for the elders to close the matches out. Get it wrong and year two will pass quicker than ever envisaged.