Mayo’s true worth remains unclear

Trying to run a form line through league games is always fraught with peril.

When the top counties set out their stall for the year in team meetings, the league barely gets a passing mention.

So the importance they place on it can vary wildly.

But, while we can put asterisks beside some performances – and the summer tends to give a clearer picture as to the overall context – Saturday’s defeat away to Kerry adds to a worrying trend.

Mayo have won four out of their six games so far in the league – a situation we would gladly have taken at the outset. However, the nature of the two defeats is a problem.

The two games Mayo have lost have been of the wholly comprehensive variety and both came against last year’s All-Ireland finalists and the two teams most fancied to compete for Sam Maguire this year.

Is it a coincidence that Mayo’s two worst displays this year came against such quality opposition, that it was simply about a quality deficit against the cream of the crop?

It is hard to be certain.

Mayo went into both games with two wins on the bounce, beating Galway and Dublin for an ideal start to the league before a listless display against Donegal where Andy Moran’s charges looked like a team at a very different stage of their development to Jim McGuinness’s.

But the response to that was emphatic. A comprehensive win over Monaghan in Clones followed by eking out a gritty win at home to Armagh.

And then, again, three time’s the trouble. Were Mayo lacking the edge required for such clashes? That could well be seen as a generous interpretation.

As bad as matters were in Donegal, with the result beyond doubt by half-time with Mayo, playing with the wind in the first half, trailing 0-11 to 0-5, at least they went for it and looked threatening in the third quarter. On another day, they may have snaffled a goal or two.

But, like we would witness in Tralee, passive defending led to a high shot conversion rate (Donegal were at 84 percent when they went 1-16 to 0-8 up before it tailed off) while Mayo were much lower (52 percent).

The half-time situation in Tralee was similar. Despite the wind at their backs, Mayo trailed at the break 0-13 to 0-10.

And while Andy Moran said the second-half in Tralee owed much to them being exposed at the back because they were ‘going for it’ at the other end, the accompanying reality is they did not look near threatening enough in their efforts, even when compared to the Donegal game.

Kerry looked physically so much more robust.

Joe O’Connor, in particular, looked like a man against boys at times, as did David Clifford, before you even assess his footballing brilliance.

Mayo were so open at the back. Not once in the game did Mayo concede a scoreable free.

If you want an indication as to how passive Mayo were defensively, then there you have it.

Much has been made of Kerry’s high conversion rate. I’ve been tracking such figures for 15 years and have never seen a team in any match Mayo were involved in hit the numbers Kerry hit on Saturday evening.

They had a shot conversion rate of 93 percent, scoring 25 times from just 27 shots. It was an incredible display of accuracy, not least some of their second-half two pointers.

The only misses were a Clifford effort off his right in the first-half and a Dylan Casey fisted point effort earlier on. Even that effort from Casey, which dropped in the square might be one people could argue was a pass but it looked more like a shot to me.

What those figures tell you is how lethal Kerry can be but also how passive Mayo were. Again, not one free conceded inside scoring range gives you a good sense of how little intensity there was in Mayo’s defending. Not even a reckless pull-down out of pure frustration. Kerry had the freedom of the park.

Andy Moran attributed it to Mayo’s terrible second-quarter display, where Mayo let a 0-9 to 0-4 lead slip. Kerry scored eight singles in a row and led at the break 0-13 to 0-10.

Mayo did have to ‘go for it’ a bit more in the second-half but the ease with which Kerry got those eight singles when Mayo were in a winning position did not stand in much contrast to the second-half openness at the back.

The focus from the new management has been on the attacking side of play – and there are big concerns about that on Saturday too, of which more anon. But the defensive display shows how much work Mayo have to do in that regard if they are to be competitive with the top teams this summer.

And while we must credit Kerry offensively, defensively they were exceptional too. With Mayo’s assistance, we must add.

Mayo only scored 13 times on Saturday. For a 45-minute spell from when Ryan O’Donoghue pushed Mayo 0-9 to 0-4 up to a Fergal Boland two-pointer, Mayo only scored once from play (Sam Callinan at the end of the first-half).

In the full game, Mayo only scored seven times from play. It is just as well that five of those were two-pointers.

Mayo’s shot conversion rate stands in marked contrast to Kerry’s. From 33 shots, Mayo only scored 13 – a conversion rate of 41 percent.

There is no doubt that you cannot win four Division 1 league games by being as bad as Mayo were on Saturday but their true worth remains unclear.

Mayo clearly did not choose to play conservatively against the top two teams. Both games highlighted how exposed Mayo can look when a quality team gets a run on them.

Meanwhile, Roscommon beat Donegal on Sunday and, recall, they should have got a result in Killarney but for a very debatable bit of refereeing at the end.

Both teams have shown plenty of excellence this year but Roscommon have shown greater consistency in reaching the same number of points and they look closer to where they need to be at both ends of the pitch.

The two counties play next Sunday and no doubt both sets of management could do without it.

Shadow boxing possibilities loom large but Mayo will need to rebound from Tralee and prove to themselves as much as to anyone else that the hosing they got is not reflective of where they are at.