Promise is one thing, reality is quite another

Even before the shock defeat to London, expectations were low among the Green and Red faithful; lower than at any time since the start of the 2011 season. Two summers of quarter-final stagnation has doused the flames of even the most optimistic in our ranks.

The loss through retirement of key members of that brilliant – but ultimately unfulfilled – team of the Horan/Rochford era has only added to the downbeat mood. We seem to be stuck in an interminable end-of-era phase, and the events of January 7th would certainly not suggest we are even remotely close to a new beginning. Experimental team or not, no group of Mayo senior footballers should lose to London, and all the more dispiriting is the statistic that our highest scorer on the day – Cillian O’Connor – is one of the few survivors from that golden generation.

So, as we embark on another league and championship season, we have to be more bearish in our expectations than at any time in the last 13 years. Based on displays over the past two seasons, Mayo will have had a good 2024 if our Division One status is retained and we manage to make it to the last four in the championship. That might seem a tad defeatist but let’s look at a few unpalatable truths.

Firstly, we have a scoring crisis. Last year, we played six championship games and managed three goals. Two were scored by defenders – David McBrien against Galway and Eoghan McLaughlin against Kerry – and the third was netted by substitute Tommy Conroy against Cork. In those six games, our six starting forwards managed a grand total of 27 points from play, that’s an average of 4.5 points per game for the sextet and less than a point per game on an individual basis. You wouldn’t beat London with a scoring rate like that, let alone Kerry or Dublin.

We can blame the defensive, pedestrian style of play for the dearth of scores – and there is no doubt we struggle against the massed blanket defence – but our county senior football championship at the back end of last year only further illustrated the dearth of quality forwards in Mayo at the moment. The top scorer was Ballina Stephenites’ Evan Regan, who has retired from the county senior team, followed by Breaffy’s Aidan O’Shea, now entering his 16th season in a Mayo senior jersey. That’s hardly a full-forward line for the future.

Of course, a lack of scoring forwards is nothing new for Mayo. In the six All-Ireland finals (including the 2016 replay) between 2012 and 2021, we managed just one goal from a forward – Andy Moran against Dublin in 2013. Yet we were competitive in all of those finals, and could have won several of them, mainly because we had exceptional quality in other parts of the pitch, most notably in our half-back line, which was a constant attacking threat. Replacing a once-in-a-generation player like Lee Keegan was always going to be difficult – even when Mayo football was riding the crest of a wave – but the decline in standards at club level has made it nigh impossible. Even if a young Lee Keegan was to emerge, are there the calibre of wingmen like Keith Higgins, Colm Boyle, etc, to ensure he realises his full potential? I’m not sure.

Ballina Stephenites won a truly forgettable county final and nobody was surprised when Corofin defeated them in the Connacht Club Championship – a Corofin team, let it be said, that went on to lose the provincial final to St Brigid’s from Roscommon. The club championship is not always the best barometer of a county’s football health but it is concerning that eight years have passed since a Mayo club team last claimed senior provincial honours. That’s the longest period without provincial success since the 1980s when Roscommon side Clan na nGael ruled the roost in Connacht. Indeed, Knockmore’s success in the 1992 championship was the first for a Mayo side since Garrymore in 1981. In the next 12 seasons, Mayo clubs would claim provincial honours eight times and win two All-Ireland titles. Undeniably, the quality of club football in the county was at a much higher standard during that period than it is now – and the statistics bear it out.

If any reader has managed to make it this far they will surely be convinced that I wrote this article on Blue Monday, that so-called day in January when the post-Christmas blues are at their, well, bluest. But that’s not the case. In fact, Storm Isha is howling down the chimney as I pen these words and maybe this Mayo team needs to channel some of her fury. They will be smarting after the London debacle – even those who did not play – and they will surely want to make a statement against their oldest rivals, and in their backyard.

But we all have to be realistic as supporters and we must recognise that the Mayo team of today is simply not of the same calibre as the exceptional group of players who brought us on such an unforgettable journey from 2011 to 2021. I think it would be a commendable achievement if this team retains its Division One status, especially if they can achieve it with an unbeaten run of results at MacHale Park. For all the greatness of the team that went before them, its Achilles Heel was that home record, which was inexplicably ordinary. Perhaps this group of players can lay down a marker in the months ahead by making MacHale Park the fortress it should be.

Beyond that, we can only hope that some talented young players emerge from the pack and use this league campaign to lay the foundations for long and distinguished careers in the Green and Red. In his press conference last week, Kevin McStay talked up Mayo’s chances of winning Sam Maguire but what else is he supposed to do? Realistically, though, he will know that it will take an extraordinary confluence of events to propel this Mayo team into a final, let alone take those final steps to the long-awaited summit.

But we have been here before, most notably in 2011 and 1996 when Mayo teams began the year with low expectations only to unexpectedly blossom in the summer sunshine. To defy the pessimists like myself, McStay will want to get something out of next weekend’s opening National League fixture against Galway, and if two points are not possible, he will want a convincing, competitive display with Mayo still in the hunt in the final quarter. Salthill on a January day is not the easiest place to mount an ambush and Galway will want to lay down their own marker, especially as they will regard last year as an underwhelming experience marred by injuries to key players and loss of form for others, most notably Shane Walsh.

For Mayo, there is nothing like victory over Galway to breathe new life into a team. Beat the Tribesmen and this Mayo team goes bounding into their first home fixture of the season against All-Ireland champions Dublin. Defeat in Salthill – especially a bad one – would pile on the early-season pressure, which is not a place McStay will want to be with the Dubs coming to town.

Next weekend’s local derby should stir the blood of these Mayo lads – and, if it doesn’t, then we’re probably in for a short summer and a long winter.