Pressure on Mayo to convince public they’re on the right road

When Kevin McStay was appointed manager of the Mayo senior football team in August 2022, he was given a four-year contract, which was a year longer than most people expected. Two or three-year contracts are the norm in most other counties. Dessie Farrell signed a three-year contract with Dublin when he became manager in 2020 while Jack O’Connor got a two-year contract from Kerry County Board when he took over from Peter Keane in 2021.

However, if we have learned anything over the years, it is that these contracts are not worth the paper they are written on. Results ultimately dictate the duration of a manager’s tenure and that’s why the next three weeks are so crucial for Kevin McStay and his management team. Defeat to either Cavan or Roscommon will all but spell the end of Mayo’s involvement in this year’s championship, and more importantly will leave a very sour taste for fans who have grown accustomed to big summer clashes in Croke Park against the top teams.

Of course, there is a mathematical scenario where Mayo lose one of their first two games and limp on into the preliminary quarter-final series, but realistically, if the team is to have any chance of making it into the business end of the championship (i.e. the semi-finals), it will need to deliver two convincing victories in the next three weeks. And the key word in that sentence is ‘convincing’.

Mayo have been anything but convincing in their three championship games to date. Two goals conceded against New York, two gilt-edged goal chances conceded to Roscommon and a late fade-out against Galway have all created a sense of unease among supporters. There is a mounting body of evidence to suggest that Mayo are never more vulnerable than when they are in front and every team that plays Mayo must surely know that by now.

In fairness, Mayo’s unfortunate propensity to lose or draw big games from winning positions is not just a feature of the McStay era. Ten years ago, James Horan’s brilliant team surrendered a five-point lead to Kerry in an All-Ireland semi-final and older readers hardly need to be reminded of the ghost of Colm Coyle.

It is also an undeniable fact that other teams lose leads too. Limerick’s immortal hurlers got mugged by Cork at the weekend, conceding 1-1 in stoppage time in a game for the ages. But there is a difference between that incredible clash in Pairc Ui Chaoimh and Mayo’s defeat at the hands of Galway in Salthill a week earlier. Limerick lost a game that ebbed and flowed from the first minute with both sides enjoying periods of supremacy; Mayo lost a game they had largely dominated from the get-go.

Therefore, the one thing everyone will be looking for when Mayo takes the field next Saturday is consistency. Can we build a lead and hold a lead until the final whistle? It sounds like a fairly basic requirement of any team but, unfortunately, that is where we are at right now.

In the lead-up to the Connacht Final, Cahair O’Kane, in the Irish News, produced an interesting thesis that he backed up with some hard stats. Since Kevin McStay has taken charge, Mayo have been behind at half-time ten times and have only won two of those (against Monaghan in the National League earlier this year and against Galway in the All-Ireland series last summer). Conversely, they have been either level or in front at half-time on 12 occasions and have won 11 of those games.

“Long story short,” said O’Kane. “Mayo are brilliant with a lead and distinctly underwhelming without one.” With all due respect to Cahair and his statistics, I am not so sure about that particular thesis. There are lies, damned lies and statistics, or as Mark Twain eloquently put it: “Facts are stubborn, statistics are more pliable.” Now for a few facts. One of the more notable games where Mayo did not lead at half-time was against Cork in the All-Ireland group stages last June. However, we led in the second-half – we had a handsome six-point advantage – yet somehow contrived to get beaten by three points. A fortnight earlier against Louth, we had gone in at half-time three points in front yet ended up clinging on for a one-point victory. Statistically, we won the game after leading at half-time, but in reality, we made hard work of it. That game tells me a lot more about the Mayo mentality when in front than a facile victory over the likes of New York where we led at half-time and still led at the final whistle.

The trend of letting leads slip has continued into 2024. Earlier this year, we went in at half-time in our National League tie against Tyrone with a three-point advantage but were swept away in the second-half, and the league fixture against Monaghan referenced by O’Kane saw goalkeeper Rory Byrne coming to our rescue despite the fact that the Ulster men were reduced to 13 players for the final minutes. So was it a surprise that we struggled to hold onto a two-point lead in the white heat of battle in Salthill? The statistics tell us one thing but the facts point to a very different reality. Mayo are distinctly underwhelming with a lead.

Ideally, it would be encouraging to see Mayo dominate possession in the next two games (as we did against Galway), build up a commanding lead and close out the game in the final 10 minutes. But anyone who has been around sport for long enough knows that nothing can be taken for granted and every manager is at the mercy of events, dear boy, events. A bad refereeing decision, injuries to key players or just plain old bad luck (which, of course, would never happen to Mayo) can scupper the best-laid plans. However, all things being equal, Mayo need two convincing performances to dispel the fears that they are a team headed in the wrong direction.

One of the problems for Kevin McStay is that there is a perception, whether fairly or unfairly, that he has failed to stamp his identity on the Mayo team. What’s different about Mayo under McStay compared to Mayo under James Horan? Answers on a postcard, please, because I cannot see any discernible difference, other than that we are now playing at a slower, more conservative pace. There has been little or no change in personnel, apart from enforced replacements. Of the 21 players that Horan used in his final championship outing against Kerry in July 2022, 16 are still either first-team players or substitutes. Of the remainder, three have retired (Lee Keegan, Kevin McLoughlin and Jason Doherty), Oisin Mullin is in Australia and only Aidan Orme has failed to retain his place. That’s not a lot of changes in personnel in two years but, to be fair to McStay, are there many alternatives out there in our clubs? Last year’s club championship would suggest that he is not spoilt for choice.

It is also worth pointing out that the entire full-back line has been replaced during his tenure, as well as the goalkeeper, but in terms of a dramatic shift in either tactics or personnel there is not much evidence of either. Conor Loftus was tried at centre-back but that idea was abandoned midway through last year’s championship campaign, while McStay’s insistence as a pundit that Aidan O’Shea should only be used at full-forward has not really worked out in practice and O’Shea continues to drift all over the field. And to be fair to O’Shea, that’s not necessarily a bad thing, but it does make it more difficult to retain the team’s shape.

Ultimately, the next two games offers the manager and the team an opportunity for a total reset. Cavan and Roscommon are not to be taken for granted but they are eminently beatable, especially if Mayo come with their best form. Get two wins on the bounce and suddenly we enter the final group fixture against Dublin (in a NEUTRAL venue!) with a pep in our step.

But there is huge pressure attached to these games too. Failure to get beyond the group stages would certainly be met with a Mayo ‘roar’… just not the kind the manager envisaged against Galway. And knowing the way Mayo County Board works, that aforementioned four-year contract could suddenly become – as Mark Twain might say ¬– more pliable.

So there is a fair bit of pressure on the Mayo management over the next three weeks. Two victories by whatever means will suffice, but two statement wins would be even better.