Odds stacked against Mayo, but never say never
Mayo has an impressive senior championship record at Dr Hyde Park but never have they played there against an opposition as formidable as Dublin. Picture: INPHO/James Crombie
Both teams are safely through the group stage but whether it’s Mayo or Dublin who finish top of Group 2 and take the direct route into the All-Ireland quarter-finals will be decided this coming Sunday at Roscommon’s Dr Hyde Park.
Any hint of this match game being played in Croke Park was shot down by Mayo County Board before the GAA itself had even made a decision so manager Kevin McStay will be very pleased with the neutral venue selection. Dr Hyde Park is becoming a very comfortable and familiar location for Mayo, having won there twice in the championship already this season and not losing a championship match at the ground since 2001 when beaten in both a Connacht final by the hosts and by Westmeath in the All-Ireland Qualifiers.
However, they will never have encountered a team in the 23 years since at the Hyde quite like the reigning All-Ireland champions and the bookmakers see only one outcome in this one, with Dublin as short-priced as 1/5.
Even the most ardent Mayo supporter cannot argue that their side are coming in as major underdogs. While the team has navigated the games against Cavan and Roscommon with relative ease, the fans have been unable to shake a feeling that performances to date have not been very convincing. But is that fair?
As our columnist Mark Ronaldson rightly pointed out last week, Mayo are having to cut their cloth accordingly to break down teams who adopt the most effective way to stop the Green and Red’s attack: defending deep and in numbers. Mayo’s more patient attacking approach may not be as easy on the eye as ‘Horan-ball’ was, but it doesn’t take away its effectiveness.
Even against Roscommon in a tricky wind last time out, Mayo were doing a lot right in getting through or around the home side’s backlines and there is no reason to believe they won’t find some joy this weekend too, although Kevin McStay has a potentially big decision on whether to select Aidan O’Shea and Cillian O’Connor together again in the full-forward line. If so, Tommy Conroy may again have to settle for an impact substitute role – or could The Neale flier be brought into the half-forward line?
Conroy has been named at wing-forward for the Dublin game but whether he starts there or drops to the bench as a result of a late change remains to be seen. Diarmuid O’Connor, who missed the game against Roscommon, has been deemed fit and takes his place among the substitutes while James Carr is also named on the bench, the first time he has been in a Mayo squad since the Monaghan tie in the final round of the National Football League. Fergal Boland, however, is suspended after receiving a straight red card for an off-the-ball incident deep into stoppage time against the Rossies.
In more positive news, Sam Callinan was impressive playing at six, Matthew Ruane has rediscovered his best form and Eoghan McLaughlin produced his finest performance in a Mayo shirt to date against the Rossies, scoring three points from play. Indeed the biggest compliment you could pay the Westport man is that he more than stepped up following the loss of Paddy Durcan, terrorising the Roscommon defence with his runs from deep all day long. Should he pick up where he left off, the Dubs will have problems keeping up with him.
For their part, Dublin sauntered to another Leinster title although they did appear to be asked some questions by Louth in the decider. In the All-Ireland group stage, they saw off Roscommon with their trademark final quarter spurt while they brutalised Cavan in Breffni Park last Sunday week. If Mayo were the equivalent of Floyd Mayweather in picking their spots and doing enough to win on points against Cavan, Dublin were Mike Tyson; they showed no mercy and heavy blows in the first-half meant the Breffni men would have been forgiven if throwing in the towel at half-time.
They may not boast the same frightening bench of old that made them near-on unstoppable in the 2010s, but the Dublin squad remains the envy of all. Stephen Cluxton, Michael Fitzsimons and James McCarthy are looking to become the first three men to take their All-Ireland winners medals into double digits and that’s before you speak about Ciaran Kilkenny, Brian Howard, Brian Fenton, Paul Mannion, Cormac Costello, Con O’Callaghan and the Smalls, John and Paddy.
Mayo’s defence, which has been questionable at times this year, will need to be on it from throw-in and avoid a similar start to what they had against Dublin in the National League earlier this year. In that meeting, Mayo were able to claw their way back as uncharacteristic erratic shooting by Dublin saw them beaten by Fergal Boland’s injury-time winner.
Nonetheless, all things point to a Dublin victory but Mayo have a habit of beating All-Ireland champions. Tyrone in 2004, Cork in 2011, Dublin in 2012, Donegal in 2013 and, most famously, Dublin again in 2021, bringing their six-year run as All-Ireland champions to an end.
Will they add another to the collection? It is not out of the question.
