All-Ireland Final 2026: The key battlegrounds
If players like Jordan Flynn and Bob Tuohy can help gain Mayo a decent share of primary possession, the team has the forwards to prosper. Picture: INPHO/James Crombie
Its importance on Sunday is hard to overstate.
Mayo’s middle sector has been competitive in the last two games but have been edged out overall, if we exclude the second-half against Louth.
Louth and Cork were unable to make the most of their possession but Kerry are likely to be far more productive.
The stats so far come out on top for Kerry. Data from GAA performance analyst Darren Devine shows that Mayo have retained 56 percent of Jack Livingstone’s kick-outs whereas Kerry have retained 76 percent of Shane Murphy’s across the last five games.
Kerry, with four big men across the middle, like to press the opposition kickout. Jack Livingstone prefers to kick long to his right. He will need to mix it up a bit more but his composure under pressure has impressed.
Mayo will also have noted how Dublin got some joy off the Kerry kickout in the second-half of the semi-final and did quite well off their own kickout.
Mayo are not blessed with a cohort of big fielders but have the staff to break ball and make it a ground battle.
Denying Kerry simple short kick-outs will be an important role for the full-forward line. Mayo have tried to go short themselves in recent games but the risk may be higher than the reward given the potency of the Kerry inside line if it goes wrong.
While turnovers have been a key possession platform for Mayo, it is hard to see them winning this game without at least breaking even at midfield. That’s a big ask but not beyond them.
In the quarter and semi-finals, there was realistically only one match-up Mayo were particularly concerned about.
While Enda Hession picked up Sam Mulroy in the semi-final, a much bigger danger came from Steven Sherlock in the Cork game.
Donnacha McHugh did superbly there but now Mayo go into a final where they have more threats in one game than they had in the previous two games combined.
After his performance in the semi-final as well as last year’s final, it would be a big surprise to see Paudie Clifford not tagged permanently by a Mayo defender.
His brother David will require a similar approach.
Dylan Geaney’s form before the semi-final meant he was another player to be under such consideration. It was interesting to read Stephen Rochford observe in his column that under the new rules, you can feasibly only dedicate a permanent man marker or tagger to two opposition players.
If that is the case, it would appear that the two Cliffords head the queue. Donnacha McHugh looks best equipped for the biggest defensive job in football, trying to curtail David Clifford, with David McBrien a potential Plan B.
Either Sam Callinan or Enda Hession could be assigned the Paudie Clifford role. They will need to be physically capable as well as quick on their feet and in their heads.
At the other end, Mayo’s on form full-forward line should give Kerry plenty to think about too.
Jason Foley will likely go to Ryan O’Donoghue with Dylan Casey probably set for Darragh Beirne and Paul Murphy to take Kobe McDonald.
While Kerry are often seen as football purists, they are capable of being as cynical as anyone and it will be interesting to see how these battles go.
Turnovers have been a huge source of oxygen for Mayo, especially with their struggles to break even around the middle.
Louth, in particular, assisted them with unforced turnovers but Mayo’s intent for turnovers was so apparent in the last two games in how players flocked to the ball if they saw the potential for a turnover.
Kerry’s slower attack play in recent games will require patience from Mayo too if they persist with it while Kerry’s quick hands and vision could see them split Mayo open if Mayo’s defence pounce towards the ball at the wrong time.
Mayo have more match-ups to contend with in this game than the last two combined. That can impact on the ability of having players to pounce for any potential turnovers.
Against Louth, Mayo often dropped Stephen Coen into the old ‘D’ as a covering defender, leaving Conor Grimes free. It cost them four points but arguably secured their central area.
Will Mayo try a similar approach on Sunday? What Kerry players can they leave free? Seán O’Brien and Mark O’Shea at midfield are two options but they could hurt you too.
As excellent as Mayo’s defensive shape has been in recent games, winning turnovers and thwarting Kerry’s attacks the next day will be a big step up.
In his column last week, Darragh Ó Sé rightly observed that Kerry have been playing a more cautious, conservative style of attack. It hasn’t been gung-ho, going for quick, direct ball but, more often than not, patient, slow build-up play.
Ó Sé implored Kerry to let off the handbrake for the final. Perhaps they can but perhaps the approach is grounded in the knowledge and data they possess of their squad.
A handful of them are not long back from injury while the bulk of them have had searching examinations from Donegal, Tyrone and Dublin as well as the first-half against Armagh.
How Kerry can play this game matters. If they can hit fifth gear, we’re not sure if anyone can live with them.
But if they play a more conservative approach, it can make them a bit more vulnerable. It was clear against Dublin and telling that Jack O’Connor referenced it continuously in interviews that experience was vital.
Being in a game against Kerry with ten or 15 minutes to go is one thing – getting over the line is quite another, as Mayo know only too well from the clashes with Dublin a decade ago.
But Mayo looked like they had reserves of energy with how they played against Louth and their running power is a key strength. A far from taxing semi-final is a boon as well with a two-week turnaround.
If Mayo have one physical advantage, it may lie here.
Disclaimer: There are more than five potential factors for this game so we will round up a few more.
Bench impact could be central. Depending on their starting team, Kerry could have firepower like Tom O’Sullivan, Seán O’Shea, Keith Evans and Tony Brosnan to call on as well as very good defensive cover too.
Mayo have Tommy Conroy and Cian McHale up top and plenty of experience for various positions, not least Diarmuid O’Connor who impressed greatly against Meath.
It’s referee Martin McNally’s first All-Ireland final and with all the talk of Kerry getting lucky against Tyrone and Dublin in terms of refereeing decisions, the biggest compliment he could receive on Sunday is if nobody is talking about him afterwards.
Winning the toss could be vital. The Canal End goal has proven to be the scoring zone in recent weeks with a significant breeze blowing from the Hill. Mayo have chosen to have its aid in the second-half. Will Kerry choose likewise if they win the toss?
Mayo chose to go for goal more against Louth and it succeeded. Will they try a similar approach or satisfy themselves with two-point efforts? It is hard to do both.
You would think they would need to score more goals than Kerry to win.
Luck, dealing with pressure, responding well to setbacks – there are so many variables, especially under the new rules.
If Mayo can hold their own at midfield, disrupt Kerry’s supply and maintain the defensive intensity shown against Cork and Louth, they can be well in the mix for an upset.
