Why do Mayo people vote the way they do?

You couldn’t move on social media on the weekend of the election for people decrying why so many voters were voting for ‘more of the same’. 

People frustrated with such relatively strong support for the two main Government parties wondered out loud about the ‘I’m alright Jack brigade’. That’s their way of describing people who ignored inequalities in the country because they personally were doing quite fine – or so people assumed. It is not anywhere close to being as simple as that.

Certainly in Mayo, while the dominance of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael is on the decline (as referenced in last week’s column), there can be no doubt that structurally, they are still the strongest two parties and that’s a massive barrier for other parties.

Sinn Féin may have more seats than Fine Gael but in terms of nationwide reach and strength at a grassroots level, they have quite a bit of catching up to do on both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.

I always remember being at a Sinn Féin local election convention in the Welcome Inn in 2014. It was to select their team of candidates across the county and there were 80 party members in the room. Later that same day, the Fine Gael selection convention for the Castlebar area alone had over 300 members gathered in the TF Royal Theatre across town. The gulf between the two at a local level was vast.

Sinn Féin has really established itself since with Rose Conway-Walsh topping the poll to retain her seat and the party taking 19% of the vote when you include her running mate Cllr Gerry Murray (Fianna Fáil were only one percentage point ahead of them). But to see the job of work that is still in front of the party, you only need to recall that Cllr Murray was their only candidate elected to the 30 Mayo County Council seats earlier this year.

And, yet, they are still miles ahead of so many other parties. Despite strong performances overall, neither Labour nor the Social Democrats could find a candidate to run in Mayo. The combined People Before Profit and Green vote in Mayo was just over 2,000 though Paul Lawless did make a historic breakthrough for Aontú. His achievement is all the more commendable when you consider his party’s lack of a footprint in the county.

Watching the TV debate between the leaders of the three main parties, one couldn’t but feel a bit of sympathy for Mary Lou McDonald. On the face of it, it was three party leaders but the reality is it was two versus one.

There was a certain inevitability about the national result and while Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are clearly not as strong as they once were, as evidenced by the very fact they coalesced since 2020, there is a lot of work required by those in opposition to put themselves in a position to create an alternative Government next time around.

Because as long as Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael remain so strong at a grassroots level, they will attract more candidates than the others (ideology might not be as big a factor in Irish politics as people might think) and have better local networks than others. And that gives them a huge advantage, particularly in rural constituencies.

Geography and personality have a massive influence on voting patterns, particularly in a constituency like Mayo’s and Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have a massive head start on the others. Sinn Féin and Aontú taking two seats between them is a spectacular achievement in many respects.

‘All politics is local’ is, like any cliché, popular because there is so much truth in it. People in Mayo want a local TD and people want someone in the Dáil who they think can represent them and fight for their area. Party loyalties play a part and there is no doubt that many cast their vote based on who they wanted in government but, unlike the UK, candidates parachuted into a constituency with no ties there have next to no chance in Ireland. So the key for parties in Ireland is to get strong candidates and have them well-placed in the constituency.

After the retirement of Michael Ring, Westport clearly wanted to retain a TD in the town. They saw the benefit of having Ring fight for their corner of the country for 30 years and though inexperienced, Keira Keogh, with Ring’s strong backing, got resounding support, taking 38% of the votes in Westport Electoral Area and cleaning up in the town itself.

Alan Dillon took 38%of the votes in Castlebar; Rose Conway-Walsh a staggering 41% of the Belmullet Electoral Area votes (bear in mind this also includes Achill and votes from there rarely travel north to Erris) while Dara Calleary took 33% of all votes in Ballina.

Only Paul Lawless, with 13% of the vote in Claremorris Electoral Area, was off the pace of those elected. It must be added that his success owed to an ability to get votes from elsewhere and, particularly, being transfer-friendly.

If you look at Castlebar in totality, 63% of votes there went to candidates from the area (Dillon, Lisa Chambers, Joe Daly, Stephen Kerr and Gerry Loftus) while in Claremorris Electoral Area, it was 61% of votes went to the three local candidates (Lawless, Patsy O’Brien and Martina Jennings).

It was a huge tally. Cllr Patsy O’Brien’s complaints about South Mayo being ‘let down' by votes leaving the region really does underline the role geography plays. While some on social media were complaining about what parties got support, O’Brien was very much of the view that people in South Mayo should vote for South Mayo candidates, irrespective of what party they were with. His concern was not who people should support in order to elect a government but that his area would have a TD, preferably him of course!

And while he might not have got quite enough votes in South Mayo, when you look at the trends though in Mayo, it is clear the wish for a local TD is a big motivation in voter behaviour. We’ve said and heard it said frequently that North Mayo does not have the population to elect three TDs (an argument made for why it was an uphill struggle for Mark Duffy). The implicit acknowledgement in this is that votes do not tend to travel far.

Germany has a system where people vote for local candidates to represent their area and, separately, for the party they wish to govern. One wonders how that would play out in Ireland. Because it is clear voters cast their preferences for many reasons and who they want to see in government is just one of those.