What now for defeated Dáil candidates?

With a seat added and Michael Ring retiring, everyone knew there would be at least one new face heading to Leinster House to represent Mayo in the 34th Dáil. I say at least one because Lisa Chambers, who contested the election, was there before between 2016 and 2020. As it turned out, we sent two new faces east.

When the votes were counted, Rose Conway-Walsh, Alan Dillon, Dara Calleary, Kiera Keogh and Paul Lawless were the TDs elected. Despite being a very capable operator, Lisa didn’t make it.

Lisa’s result is likely to be a career-ender. This is the second general election in which she failed to get the necessary votes, to secure a seat for Fianna Fáil. Lisa polled well in the European elections, gaining 44,069 (6.5%) first-preference votes before being eliminated on the 19th count. Sources close to Lisa said that the Euro performance would boost her campaign for a Dáil attempt. The voters of Mayo, however, remained insufficiently impressed.

The first duty of any politician is to get elected. It doesn’t matter how good a candidate is, if they can’t get elected, they won’t be able to do any of the things they promised or really believed in, or both. Lisa has failed in two successive Dáil elections now. She is unlikely to contest another.

Lisa had a few scrapes with controversy over the years. There was the Dáil voting issue, which in fairness, was not confined to Lisa. There was some issue about the distance from her home to Leinster House for expenditure purposes and the Yes/No voting issue in the March 2024 referendums on Family and Care. Lisa also supported the campaign to Repeal the 8th Amendment to the Irish Constitution, a stance she said was unpopular in what is predominantly a conservative constituency, particularly among Fianna Fáil voters.

Lisa seemed to be one of the ‘chosen few’ by party leader, Micheál Martin. In 2016, she was appointed Fianna Fáil Spokesperson on Defence, and later handled Brexit matters for the party, but she lost her seat in 2020 to Rose Conway-Walsh in the Sinn Féin uprising, although she gained some consolation with a Seanad seat on the Cultural and Educational Panel and is the current leader of the Seanad.

Lisa is an intelligent and well-educated woman. She always gave a good account of herself in debates and the media. Yet she failed to impress sufficient members of the public when it mattered most – in the first duty. The Fianna Fáil vote in Castlebar, Lisa’s base, was down again in the recent election. With the extra seat available and the retirement of Michael Ring, November 29th, 2024, was Lisa’s great chance.

Tellingly, Michael Smyth, the party’s director of elections in Mayo, speaking to the media at the count, said: "We’ll come back next time with a stronger team." It’s hard to see a comeback from that one.

It’s hard to see a comeback too, for Fine Gael’s Martina Jennings.

Added to the ticket by party headquarters, Martina polled poorly in the crowded South Mayo field, being beaten in her home ballot box by an Independent candidate, Patsy O’Brien, if tally figures are to be believed.

Martina had all the appearance of being a strong candidate. She had a most impressive CV. She was the sitting chief executive of the high-profile Mayo Roscommon Hospice, was a former Mayo Person of the Year and had name recognition throughout the county and beyond. It seemed likely she would have made a good TD.

But getting to be a TD proved elusive for Martina. The first duty and all that.

Martina’s plight was not helped by the fact that she had no tradition within the Fine Gael party and was directly up against the very popular, Patsy O’Brien. Paul Lawless of Áontu was in the near-field too.

Apart from claiming that she would be "a strong voice for Mayo", and pointing to her delivery of the hospice as a private citizen, and asking people to "think of what [she] could do as a TD", Martina didn’t seem to have any clearly expressed specific policies during the campaign. She may well have had a long list of such policies, but the message didn’t get out to the voting public. 

Martina suffered, too, from being a ‘parachute’ candidate. She didn’t go before the party’s selection convention, being added later by Fine Gael HQ strategists, an often unpopular move with the so-called grassroots of all parties.

It seems unlikely Martina will contest a political election again. With the retirement of Michael Ring and the new seat created by the return to the Mayo constituency of an area to the south of the county, this was Martina’s big chance. It seems likely Martina will return to her role with the hospice and chalk the whole campaign down to experience.

Patsy O’Brien, on the other hand, could well have another go.

Patsy stayed in the race until the final count, which was a remarkable achievement, given the fact that he had a Fine Gael candidate (Jennings) in his back-yard, and became a household name during the campaign for what he described as “workplace banter” and Fine Gael described as something a lot more serious. In the end, he swept the Claremorris Electoral Area, getting 30% of the vote, but it wasn’t enough. He was overtaken by Paul Lawless along the journey through the counts and came up short at the end.

Patsy remains very popular in the southern end of the county and there is a lot of anger that he didn’t get elected, after serving the area for 20 years as a councillor. Patsy could well have one more go.

The Western People understands that Mark Duffy is already campaigning for a seat in the Seanad. Mark is a clever man and he would have known how difficult it would be for North Mayo to elect three TDs, and with Dara Calleary and Rose Conway-Walsh in-situ, he was facing into a stiff breeze. It seems unlikely that he relinquished his Independent status and joined Fine Gael just to be a sweeper candidate. A Seanad run seemed on the cards from the day he was announced as a candidate. And a good senator he will make too if he can fulfil the first duty.

Gerry Murray might have had a chance a couple of years ago when Sinn Féin were at the top of their popularity, but he was never going to make it in 2024. Gerry is an extremely likeable man and a popular politician with all sides, but there weren’t enough votes for everyone and Gerry knew that. It seems unlikely Gerry will feature again in a general election, but he could well have a crack at the Seanad.

Stephen Kerr polled a lot better than many people expected, with 3,289 first preferences, and will be encouraged by that and by the success of Paul Lawless. Stephen seems certain to keep working at grassroots level and putting his name on the ballot paper for the next election.

It’s hard to see Independent Ireland candidate, Chris Maxwell, going again. He did well to get elected to Mayo County Council in June, but he is pinned against the Atlantic and won’t be helped by the election of Westport woman, Kiera Keogh.