Two-candidate strategy make sense for SF

The race for the five Dáil seats in the upcoming general election in Mayo has been transformed by declarations in recent weeks. Fine Gael went from having two candidates put forward at their selection convention – outgoing TD Alan Dillon and Westport’s Keira Keogh – to now running four. That came with the late additions to their tickets of south Mayo-based Martina Jennings and Ballina county councillor Mark Duffy, who left the Independent ranks.

It was felt that would be the end of the big names to enter the race. There had been talk earlier on that with no strong candidate in south and east Mayo, Sinn Féin might adopt a two-candidate strategy and run Charlestown-based Cllr Gerry Murray along with Deputy Rose Conway-Walsh.

However, with Martina Jennings in the race, combined with the presence of former Fine Gael county councillor (now an Independent councillor) Patsy O’Brien and Aontú’s Cllr Paul Lawless from Knock, it looked a bit crowded for a two-candidate strategy for Sinn Féin. They see it differently and the contest is set to be a fascinating one.

Fianna Fáil has two candidates – Deputy Dara Calleary and Senator Lisa Chambers. They will be bidding for two seats.

Fine Gael is now running four candidates. It is a risky strategy but be in no doubt they are targeting three seats.

Sinn Féin has good reason to be hopeful of retaining Rose Conway-Walsh’s seat and are hoping to be in with a shout for a second seat.

Patsy O’Brien declared because he felt he could take a seat. His huge county council vote is a solid platform though the addition of Martina Jennings to the race in his backyard could well hinder his hopes.

After getting over 2,500 votes in 2020 from a low base and since being elected to Mayo County Council, Cllr Paul Lawless is bullish about his chances. And another big vote-getter in the county council elections this year was Lecanvey’s Cllr Chris Maxwell (Independent Ireland).

That’s eleven candidates who can be described as competitive for just five seats. It’s highly likely there will be lots of counts, and transfers will be crucial in determining who takes the seats.

Kudos to Micheál O Conaill for standing for the Greens, a lonely spot in Mayo. After receiving 117 votes in the local elections, he will know his candidacy is more about offering Green voters a representation than taking a seat.

Saoirse McHugh, who polled a very respectable first preference haul of over 4,000 votes in 2020 for the Greens, and since left them after they went into Government with Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, has confirmed she is not running this time.

We’ve written here in the past that voters in Mayo tend to vote more for the candidate than for the party. There are party loyalists in Mayo and while the personality vote is more pronounced at local authority level, it still applies at general election level too.

Was Michael Ring’s huge vote across 30 years just because he was with Fine Gael? No, it was personally based.

If it was just about party, Fine Gael could decide early on for a four-candidate strategy and find reasonable candidates for those spots. However, the reality is they are running four candidates because they found four very strong individuals for the ticket.

It is true even more so of Sinn Féin. Despite running ten candidates in the local elections, they only elected one councillor, Gerry Murray.

Based on that, it would be madness to think they could go from electing just one out of 30 county councillors to two out of five TDs for the county in a matter of months.

But the key is they have two solid candidates for the Dáil. Rose Conway-Walsh has proven a most capable performer since her election in 2020 while Gerry Murray has consistently been one of the best-performing councillors in the council chamber. Geographically, they are on other extremes of the county too.

Sinn Féin were at 15% in the polls going into the 2020 election. With them at 18% now, there is a logic to a two-candidate strategy there too, but it would still be a major upset were they to elect two TDs.

It will be revealing to see how voters in Mayo vote in terms of government candidates versus opposition candidates. Some people will be satisfied with the performance of the government while others won’t and will vote accordingly. However, experience has taught us that there are plenty who would not be happy with the government of the day who will still give their first preference to a government candidate.

This may seem counter-intuitive but people are not just voting for who they want in government, they are voting for who they feel are the best people to represent them and their county in Dáil Éireann, the best people to support them and their communities when they need it. Again, we use the example of Michael Ring whose vote remained quite constant regardless of where Fine Gael were in the polls nationally.

Let me put it this way – if you had a polling form at every count centre in Mayo for whether people wanted Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil in government, you would undoubtedly get a lower percentage than the percentage of first preference votes their candidates will get.

Party affiliation does matter to an extent – there are hardcore party loyalists throughout the county who will always vote for their party’s candidates above everyone else. Indeed, we have heard of one candidate’s whose in-laws may not be voting for them due to their generational allegiance to a different party.

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are best represented in terms of such a hardcore vote. And, by extension, in terms of troops on the ground for canvassing. But most votes are up for grabs. And the personality often comes before the party.

It is going to be some battle.