Lots of unknowns in Mayo ahead of general election

There are still so many unknowns about the next general election in Mayo that it has become a feeding frenzy for speculation and rumours.

Speculation has been rife in recent weeks that Lee Keegan might run for Fine Gael and attempt to retain Michael Ring’s seat in Westport.

There are a few problems with this. Firstly, there is no vacancy at the moment. Michael Ring has been hinting that he won’t stand in the next election but, unlike Simon Coveney and Leo Varadkar, he hasn’t actually pulled the plug on his Dáil career yet. The longer the state of limbo remains, the more he might get a dose of the ‘feck its’ and run once more with feeling.

But, in the likely event that he does step aside, would Keegan run?

There is no doubt Fine Gael would see him as a very viable candidate. His popularity as arguably the greatest Mayo footballer of the modern era would be, whether we like it or not, a major draw for voters. And as we can recall from the recent European elections in this region, Fine Gael are quite partial to the attractions of a celebrity candidate.

It would be trite to call Alan Dillon that now after a quite impressive showing in the past couple of years but that’s realistically what he was when he declared in 2017. He did not draw a huge first preference vote in 2020 but his profile made him very transfer friendly and he took a seat.

But when Keegan was asked if he might be interested in following in those footsteps last month, his reply was emphatic.

‘Oh no, God no … [I am] interested in looking at them stabbing each other constantly but no interest in ever being involved,’ he told The Mayo Football Podcast.

We know of one man who was asked about the Mayo football manager vacancy and laughed it out of town. One week later he was in the hot seat. So you cannot rule anything out. But it would be quite the u-turn by Keegan.

But that’s where we are at right now, speculation about who will run and who will not. We don’t know when the election will be. It could be in October/November or perhaps early in 2025. We probably don’t know who half the field is right now so there is a lot of informed speculation. And some not quite so informed!

But what we do know is that with Mayo now back as a five-seater, it is wide open with at least one new TD guaranteed.

Fine Gael’s plans centre on Michael Ring and what he decides to do and when. A new candidate would need a decent run at the election. The assumption is it would be a Westport-based candidate but that’s far from a given. Fine Gael could easily go with a three-candidate strategy of Alan Dillon, a north Mayo candidate and an east Mayo candidate.

Would Michelle Mulherin be coaxed back into the running in Ballina? Could Fine Gael make a bold bid for Independent Cllr Mark Duffy? It is certainly one they should attempt. Duffy has huge potential in politics but it may be hard to realise that as an Independent. Whether Fine Gael would sit well with him is the question. Considering John O’Hara’s vote pulling in the last two local elections, he might be tempted too.

Could Alma Gallagher in Ballyhaunis be tempted to run? Elected to Mayo County Council just this year, it would be a huge step but she has geography in her favour. East and South Mayo haven’t had a candidate based there since the late John O’Mahony (2007-2016). The late John Carty was there before him and Jim Higgins before that. It is a significant length of time without a TD east of Castlebar.

Independent Patsy O’Brien in Robeen might be eyeing up a run too. No longer a member of Fine Gael, his huge local election vote held very strong this year. Like Alma Gallagher, he has geography in his favour. Whether being away from Fine Gael would be a help or a hindrance to him is hard to be certain about.

Five candidates have been nominated to run for Fianna Fáil - Oireachtas members Dara Calleary and Lisa Chambers as well as county councillors Paul McNamara, Brendan Mulroy and Damien Ryan. Things will remain unclear until a selection convention in the coming weeks but McNamara would be a strong prospect if he went forward.

Both Chambers and Calleary were elected in somewhat of a surprise in 2016 when the party took two out of the four seats going compared to one out of five in 2011, when Fine Gael romped home with four seats.

In 2020, both were fancied to retain their seats but Chambers was unseated by her neighbour in Ballyheane, Alan Dillon. She was subsequently elected to the Seanad but was unsuccessful in a bid for the European Parliament this year.

Given her electoral performances overall, she is a very viable candidate for the party. However, should she fail to get elected this time, in a five-seater possibly without Michael Ring in the race, it really would leave her political career at a crossroads. Unless, that is, if the Seanad is where she feels more comfortable.

In the general election, she may well suffer from the rise of Alan Dillon since his election in 2020. Initially, Dillon looked a bit like a fish out of water but he is smart and he is shrewd and was using the opportunity to learn all the time. He will come before the electorate as a much more polished performer and experienced politician in just four years. He’s a junior minister now and his performance in grilling RTÉ chiefs during the Oireachtas Media Committee signalled a man whose political career was firmly in the ascendency.

Sinn Féin went into the local elections with considerable belief that they could be primed to take two seats in the next general election, if Gerry Murray ran with Rose Conway-Walsh. Perhaps the party may feel a bit chastised after only returning one councillor – Murray himself – but the evidence of the 2019 locals and the 2020 general election underscores a party which seems better placed to capitalise in general rather than local elections.

After being elected as Aontú’s first councillor in Mayo, Paul Lawless will likely line up another shot at a general election but it would appear that other smaller parties like Labour, the Social Democrats and the Greens will remain peripheral, at best, parties in Mayo.

Might Independent Cllr Michael Kilcoyne run given his huge vote in Castlebar local elections? Or is it an election or two too late for him?

Right now, across the political spectrum in Mayo, there are far more questions than answers.