It's time we had some clarity on the election date

When to call the election? We all know that a general election must be called before spring, but when exactly that might be is the big political question right now.

The Taoiseach and the Tánaiste have been talking about the Government going full term. Notwithstanding that, the view of most commentators – including many of their backbenchers, speaking on the record – is that they will deliver the budget next week and then shortly thereafter go to the country, sometime in November. The case for that November election is that their stock is high, the budget will bring a lot of goodies, and waiting for the winter to pass will only weaken their position.

It’s a big decision. And in political circles, it is the talk of the place. Leaving aside the merits of a November or an early spring election, what are the hazards for the Government parties here?

The first and most important thing is to recognise who cares about this and who doesn’t. Politicians and the media care about the date of an election. This is why so much of our air time recently has been taken up with it. That’s fair enough for them, and very understandable, but let’s not imagine that their fascination is shared by the public. The public are too busy – and too wise – to be bothered too much with all that talk.

The public – by which is meant the mass of people who will indeed vote in the election – don’t give a damn about when the vote is on. Some of them, a minority, might make some chat or knock craic out of it, or even read an article in the newspaper about it, but by and large nobody cares much.

When it comes to politics, people care about the cost of things they buy, the housing situation, the issues around immigration, and whether they will get into hospital on time and come out unscathed. That’s what actual people are interested in.

So, surely then, there is no risk here for the coalition leaders from all this talk? If it is indeed the case that people don’t care about what date they pick, whether they go for November or spring won’t make any difference.

Well, that might be so, but with one important caveat. People don’t like being led to think one thing and then find themselves with another. That’s politically dangerous for anyone, but especially for a new Taoiseach, and particularly when he’s been doing so well.

If all the talk from the Government party leaders continues about going full term, and then as soon as the budget is over, some device is found to justify a November election, people might start to question whether they can believe other things that any such politician says.

Gordon Brown is a good example. He had been a brilliant Chancellor of the Exchequer and number two to Tony Blair for ten years, finally becoming British Prime Minister in 2007.

In his first few months as PM, he was a colossus, knocking lumps out of his opponents with the sheer brilliance of his mind and launching all sorts of initiatives. Because he was doing so well, a lot of people suggested he should go for an early general election, even though there was no need for one until 2010.

Brown let the speculation on that build until the time came when he had to make a decision. When that moment arrived, he finally decided against it. When he was asked why, he denied it was because of a bad opinion poll that had just been published, and said it was because he wanted more time as Prime Minister to set out his vision for the country.

Brilliant and all as he was (and is), his tenure as Prime Minister never recovered from that answer. This wasn’t because people cared whether he called an election or not. They just thought his explanation for why he didn’t call one was both feeble and transparently unbelievable. When he came to address other – and more important – questions later on, people saw his answers through those lenses.

That example is of a politician allowing suggestions he would have an election early to grow, whereas we might have the opposite here: that they say they will go late but then go early. But the net effect on them could be the same. For if the government leaders continue to say it will be spring, and then suddenly produce some explanation in the coming weeks as to why ‘full term’ only means until November, people may well shake their heads. And that is a reaction politicians facing an election should not lightly bring on themselves.

On the other hand, they should also learn from Gordon Brown’s example: if they allow the speculation about an early election in November to continue and then actually decide to wait until spring, they risk losing momentum. And momentum when you have it should not be given away lightly.

Behind all this is the reality that our Taoiseach actually has few enough formal powers. They are only the head of a cabinet system of government. But when it comes to the calling of an election, the Constitution gives them clear and sole power. Any Taoiseach who commands a majority in Dáil Éireann can ask the President to dissolve the Dáil and call an election.

For that reason, it’s a lonely decision but can also become a defining one. We have had lots of Taoisigh in the past who got the date wrong. In fact, more over the years got that call wrong than right. Bertie Ahern went full term in both his governments, and it worked for him. It has often been said that Fine Gael leaders over the years have got their election dates wrong, but Charlie Haughey and Albert Reynolds were no world beaters on it either.

This being politics, it isn’t simple. And that is especially so with this government. In any coalition government, any Taoiseach needs to keep the other parties on board with that decision. That is even more so in this government where for the first time ever the job of Taoiseach has been formally shared between two parties. So, this is Simon Harris’s decision, but also Micheál Martin’s, and to a lesser extent Roderic O’Gorman’s.

That three-way decision-making structure means there is a lot of politics to this. And Micheál Martin may well be reluctant to let Simon Harris get an earlier election while the new Taoiseach’s stock is still running really high. But allowing the speculation to continue could damage both of them. So, an alternative to all that would be for them to simply say: ‘We’ll call the election when we think we have the best chance to win it. That might be November or it might be spring.’ 

A lot of people in the media might jump up and down about that answer, but 99.5% of the electorate would just possibly credit them for honesty, as well as giving the Taoiseach and Tánaiste a few weeks breathing space to sort out the best date for themselves.