It will take time to build a lasting coalition

Sure the election is over for ages now, they say. Inasmuch as people are still talking about politics, the talk you hear is that the result was clear. The Government – the Greens notwithstanding – won, didn’t they? So why is it taking them so long to get on with it?

Why indeed. Many people think that forming a government should be quick, especially when it is more or less the same crowd running it. So, what’s the delay in finalising it?

There are lots of reasons. The most important one is that any new government – even a re-elected one – has to figure out what it is going to try and actually do over the next five years. The election campaign, which was essentially a game of promises paintball, doesn’t give us much guidance on that.

Now that it’s back to governing it’s a more sober business. Negotiations that lead to a programme for government are now how the politicians who win elections decide what they will actually do.

It wasn’t always this way. When coalition governments started, parties would just sit in a room, agree who got what job and then start governing, figuring they would figure out things as they went along. In the 1970s, Brendan Corish and Liam Cosgrave used to solve difficult problems over a glass of whiskey with the racing on. It worked pretty well by all accounts.

Things have changed somewhat since then. A glass of whiskey and some bonhomie will no longer cut it. One of the key challenges for any coalition government is to achieve something coherent over a long period and get people to come along with you while you do it. The conclusion from recent experience is that you have to develop an agreed plan to bind parties together and then hopefully govern well. That was very much the feeling about the last government – what kept them together was the programme for government.

That is what the discussions about a new programme for government are all about, bringing together parties and independents who had different views on some issues during the election. On this particular occasion, those differences might have seemed small in the context of a contested election, with an opposition with very different views on the other side, but they are nonetheless significant. And they have to be resolved.

The parties will agree on the easy stuff first – and call that ‘progress in the talks’. But the harder stuff will have to be gotten to at some point. Whether it be on VAT or the exact amounts of public spending increases or tax changes over the next few years, or when to take hard decisions, these things must now be settled. The media are full of stories right now from groups and organisations trying to influence that. Every story you hear has some angle of that to it.

But it's not enough to figure out what the parties want to do and how much of our money they will commit to doing it. That’s the easy bit. They then have to figure out how to do it. And with what is commonly felt to be a poor record on delivery in their last term, this version of the FF/FG government is going to have to set out some ideas in the programme for government on how to do some important things faster this time.

Some think that creating a Department of Infrastructure to drive the delivery of big projects is the answer. Others think that that is – to state it at its mildest – a terrible idea. Deciding on that is a big decision. When you feel frustrated at the slow pace, let me assure you that it is far better for them to take their time and get that right.

That is before they get to other government departments, ones to create, ones to merge, ones to abolish. It isn’t just about a Department of Infrastructure – Fianna Fáil campaigned for the creation of something called the Department of Home Affairs. If you create that, which other department goes? These are all important decisions.

The plan setting out what to do and how to do it will be detailed in the new programme for government. To work well, that programme cannot just be a lot of fine-sounding words: it needs a lot of specific detail and clear policies put into action.

The TDs who sign up for it have to commit to the detail. That detail binds them in – you sign up to it all. This is especially important this time as the government will have independents – getting them to stick with the government makes it essential. We did a deal, now honour it, is the principle behind it. Having a programme also reduces the number of rows within the main parties and allows the government to work more smoothly.

That process of signing up is politically critical. The government needs to lock in enough TDs to that process not just to win the vote for Taoiseach, but to have a chance to survive over the longer term. Even with a detailed programme for government, there will be defections, there will be disagreements, there will, alas, be deaths and subsequent defeats in by-elections. With a majority of 88 in the new Dáil, that means the government needs a number at least in the mid-90s to not just say they will support them but to sign up and stick to the programme for government. Getting independents to do that will get harder the less likely anyone else is to support the government. Independents know they are the big winners from the election – for clever reasons, they have been quiet enough about it post-election, but that will soon change.

The parties also need a process to decide the positions and who gets what and for how long. How will the rotating Taoiseach be decided? How many cabinet ministers will each side get, which party will get what ones, and then who will do them? How will our next European Commissioner and any number of any new appointments to all sorts of roles be decided? This is the kind of thing that drives many in the public crazy – the scramble for positions. But how else could it be done if not by discussion and negotiation at the start of a new government? Do people complaining about politicians doing this want us to anoint a King to make the decisions instead?

A lot of thought and detailed policy work is needed to make sense of all the different elements. The Civil Service will stand by to help the parties understand what needs to be done and how it might be done, but ultimately the TDs – and most especially the leaders – need to make the decisions and choose priorities.

There might be a fair amount of this work done before Christmas, but don’t forget, the people involved are human beings, and they are tired, and Christmas is coming. You can expect a pause. If that means they are less tired when they make decisions about the next five years, that might just be a good thing.

This consideration of how the process works is all before you say anything about what should actually be in the new programme for government. That is another matter – and another article – entirely.