Dáil election in Mayo is wide open but few fancy it

It tells you plenty of where Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are at - and where they see themselves - that they have each only put two candidates forward at their selection conventions for the next general election in Mayo.

It’s only 13 years since Fine Gael won four out of the five seats on offer in Mayo in the 2011 election. That was a big reversal from the traditional Fianna Fáil dominance in the county.

In every general election from 1977 to 1992 (that’s seven elections), Fianna Fáil returned four out of the six TDs in Mayo – two in West Mayo and two in East Mayo. It was a spectacular run of dominance.

Now, where once either party could reflect on having four TDs in Mayo in the not-too-distant past, it appears four between them is the most they can hope for. It is perhaps telling of a general fall in support for both the main parties but you have to think it is also instructive on how many politicians are unwilling to stand in Mayo. Because, make no mistake about it, both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael would run at least three candidates if they could get people of serious calibre willing to stand. Indeed, it is far from impossible that Fine Gael might have a third candidate put forward by party HQ. But for now, we have to go on the basis of what came through the selection conventions.

We’ve spoken here in the past about concerns of the quality of people putting themselves forward for political office in Mayo, both for Mayo County Council and Leinster House. That’s no slight on any one general politician; more so an across-the-board observation.

Now a five-seater constituency again, never has Mayo been as wide open. But you also get the feeling it will be a long time since Mayo had such a weak overall list of candidates.

The county – with the part of south Mayo which was marooned in Galway West now back in its natural political habitat – has been bumped from a four-seater to a five-seater. That means there was always one extra seat on offer. There are at least two now with the retirement of Fine Gael maestro Michael Ring.

Of course, that doesn’t mean the three outgoing TDs – Rose Conway-Walsh, Dara Calleary and Alan Dillon – are assured of anything. The seats are there to be decided by the electorate. But when there are just three outgoing TDs in a five-seater, they are in a most advantageous position.

Typically Mayo has been a hornets’ nest for outgoing TDs with plenty of high profile losses over the years. In 1997, outgoing TDs Séamus Hughes and PJ Morley lost their seats. Tom Moffatt and Jim Higgins suffered a similar fate in 2002. That was the election where Enda Kenny famously had his political obituary written and in his suit pocket ahead of expecting to lose his seat but for an unexpected transfer of votes from Frank Chambers which saw Kenny leapfrog party colleague Higgins.

Two more outgoing TDs lost their seats in 2007 – Jerry Cowley, who was first past the post in 2002 only to get less than half of that vote five years later, and John Carty.

Michelle Mulherin lost her seat in 2016 and Lisa Chambers was unseated in 2020 which means the only time no TD lost their seat in Mayo since it became a countywide four or five-seater was in 2011. The retirement of Beverley Flynn saw her replaced by Michelle Mulherin and the other four outgoing TDs were returned. The next General Election looks odds on being a repeat of that.

So, if we take it that the three outgoing TDs will be returned for the purposes of my next point, that means there are a minimum of two seats on offer. It represents the perfect opportunity for anyone who may have been waiting to time their run for the opportune moment to do so. The only one who seems to be an illustration of that is Cllr Patsy O’Brien, whose strong electoral showings at county council level have always hinted at a possible run. Now that he is Independent – having been expelled from Fine Gael three years ago in circumstances that have never been published – he is free to declare without needing the party’s imprimatur. He also has a large area free from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael candidates.

Sinn Féin’s Gerry Murray is another man who may well strike while the iron is hot. Though he was the only Sinn Féin candidate elected to Mayo County Council this year, the party may try to take two seats here. It would be incredible to get just one out of 30 council seats and two out of five Dáil seats but you could not rule it out.

Overall though, plenty have ruled out running. Witness Michelle Mulherin – herself a TD from 2011 to 2016 – and the Fianna Fáil trio of Paul McNamara, Brendan Mulroy and Damien Ryan. They are all county councillors who were nominated for the selection convention but withdrew for a variety of reasons.

Keira Keogh is running for Fine Gael after a reasonable, if ultimately unsuccessful maiden run in the local elections this year. She will be hoping to capitalise on the giant Michael Ring-shaped gap in Mayo politics. Ring is supporting her too which is a vital boost.

Chris Maxwell is running for Independent Ireland after topping the poll in the Westport Electoral Area. There isn’t room for two TDs from the general Westport area. It remains to be seen if there’s room for one or if Keogh and Maxwell may cut across each other and leave the area with no TD for the first time since 1987 (Castlebar’s Enda Kenny and Pádraig Flynn and Achill’s Denis Gallagher were the three elected to West Mayo).

Rose Conway-Walsh’s sensational performance for Sinn Féin in 2020 was the first time a party from the broad left had a TD elected in Mayo in modern times. You could make an argument for Jerry Cowley, who subsequently ran for Labour, but he was elected in 2002 as an Independent.

Labour have never had a strong presence in the county, save for the enduring career of the great Johnny Mee, whose vote was far more a personal vote than a sign of the party getting a grip in the county. Newer parties like the Social Democrats, Greens and PeopleBeforeProfit have not gained any meaningful foothold in Mayo yet either.

Independent Ireland’s Maxwell and Paul Lawless of Aontú – both already elected this year – could be interesting propositions.

But while every candidate declared so far has plenty to offer, you get the sense not enough of our brightest and best are interested in standing for politics these days. It is very hard work, time-consuming and not very compatible with family life – don’t let anyone convince you otherwise. And that’s before you consider the shocking abuse (not criticism, there’s a big difference) politicians are subjected to on social media these days and, increasingly commonly, on streets as well.

One of the most common refrains I’ve heard when people are talking about potential candidates who withdrew is ‘could you blame them?’ Not for a second. But where will this all leave us a few elections down the road?