Election 2024: Two boxes of votes hold key to Swinford outcome
Cllr Gerry Murray (far left) and John Sheahan (second from right) are pictured with Sinn Féin TD Rose Conway Walsh TD and some of the party's other election candidates in Mayo Karen Gallagher, Donna Hyland and Una Morris at a meeting over the pyrite crisis in Ballina earlier this year. Picture: John O'Grady
Much of yesterday’s speculation about the fate of the four council seats in the Swinford Electoral Area was based on an incomplete tally, so it is worth having a look at the area again ahead of the counting of votes, which is due to commence at 2pm in the TF Royal in Castlebar.
The tally figures put Sinn Féin veteran councillor Gerry Murray and Fianna Fáil’s Adrian Forkan neck and neck at the top of the poll, but that appears to be an unlikely scenario as the tallymen failed to count one of the boxes from St Attracta’s National School in Charlestown, which delivered 265 votes for Murray in 2019. Based on a similar outcome this time around – and there is no reason to believe it will be different – Murray will have a first preference vote that is more likely to be 1,600 instead of the 1,337 he currently has on the tally sheets. Fianna Fáil councillor John Caulfield and Fine Gael challenger Antoinette Peyton are also likely to gain extra votes as a result of that box of votes, but not significant numbers.
In Swinford, Box No 4 at the local Cultural Centre was also omitted from the tally, and based on the other three boxes, Sinn Féin’s John Sheahan is likely to gain an additional 150 votes, which will bring him up to 1,300 approximately, instead of the 1,154 he currently has in the tallies. Antoinette Peyton and Adrian Forkan will also gain from this box.
Consequently, the more likely first count numbers (approximate) for Swinford are: Murray (1,600), Forkan (1,450), Sheahan (1,300), Caulfield (1,300), Cruise (1,250) and Peyton (900).
The only other candidate with a significant vote is Tommy Horan from Aontú (about 650), who is likely to transfer to Caulfield and Murray (if the Sinn Féin man has not been elected on the first count - the quota in 2019 was 1,634). In 2019, over one-third of Horan’s transfers went to Caulfield, so a similar pattern this time would see Caulfield move up to 1,500 votes or thereabouts.
However, the kingmaker in Swinford will be Antoinette Peyton whose transfers will decide the outcome of this race. Foxford’s Neil Cruise will need at least one-third of these to retain his seat, Sheahan will also hope to get a sizeable number from his fellow Swinford candidate, while Forkan should get enough to see him over the line.
However, there are several possible outcomes. It seems inconceivable that Fine Gael would take up to 2,200 first preferences and not hold a seat, so on that basis, Cruise should be safe, but he is not guaranteed either and could fall agonisingly short. Forkan’s first-preference tally should give him enough of a cushion to hold off Caulfield but that is not a certainty, especially if Tommy Horan delivers a substantial transfer to Caulfield.
Sinn Féin is almost certain to gain a seat here through John Sheahan, while Murray will be re-elected, but the outcome of the remaining two seats is anybody's guess as Forkan, Caulfield and Cruise are so closely matched. There will be less than 100 votes separating the final two candidates and a recount is quite possible, but if we were asked to call it now then Forkan and Cruise should just about shade it.
