Election 2024: Fianna Fáil poised to regain seat in Mayo

Constituency: Mayo 

No of seats: 5 

Candidates (16): Dara Calleary (Fianna Fáil), Lisa Chambers (Fianna Fáil), Rose Conway-Walsh (Sinn Féin), Joe Daly (People Before Profit), Alan Dillon (Fine Gael), Mark Duffy (Fine Gael), Seán Forkin (Independent), Keira Keogh (Fine Gael), Martina Jennings (Fine Gael), Stephen Kerr (Independent), Paul Lawless (Aontú), Gerry Loftus (Independent), Chris Maxwell (Independent Ireland), Gerry Murray (Sinn Féin), Patsy O’Brien (Independent), Micheál ‘Boxty’ O’Conaill (Green Party).

Next Friday’s general election in Mayo will be the most open race in living memory. The retirement of perennial poll-topper Michael Ring and the creation of an extra seat – with the return of about 6,000 votes from South Mayo – means there are two vacancies to be filled and a plethora of candidates to fill them.

There are 16 candidates in Mayo – one more than in 2020 when there were only four seats on offer – and we could fill this entire newspaper with all of the possible outcomes. The only guide is the recent opinion poll commissioned by TG4, but polling companies have a poor record when it comes to predicting elections in Mayo (as anyone who can recall 2002 and 2007 will testify).

There are, however, a few conclusions we can draw from the opinion poll and one of them is that it would be a major shock were any of the three outgoing TDs – Dara Calleary, Rose Conway-Walsh and Alan Dillon – to lose their seats. Dillon is predicted to top the poll with 17% followed by Conway-Walsh (13%) and Calleary (11%). The result for Calleary seems on the low side (he took 14% in 2020) and Conway-Walsh might also expect to get a slightly larger share, although she does have a running mate this time unlike 2020.

The quota is expected to be between 11,500 and 12,000, which is 16.6% of the total poll, and none of the candidates may reach that magic figure. The last time that happened in Mayo was way back in 2002 when it was the fifth count before any candidate exceeded the quota. That was, of course, the most dramatic Mayo election in decades and we may be in for a reprise of that nail-biter.

If we are to accept that three of the seats will be filled by the outgoing TDs, then we are left with at least half a dozen candidates for the remaining two seats. The TG4 poll put the contenders in this order: Lisa Chambers (10%), Mark Duffy (10%), Keira Keogh (8%), Patsy O’Brien (7%), Paul Lawless (7%), Gerry Murray (5%), Martina Jennings (4%), Joe Daly, Stephen Kerr, Chris Maxwell and Micheal ‘Boxty’ O Conaill (all 2%), Gerry Loftus (1%) and Sean Forkin (<1%).

In a race where there are so many candidates for so few seats, transfers will be critical and that is where geography could play a decisive role. In the aforementioned 2002 election, Fine Gael’s Enda Kenny survived because he picked up transfers from Fianna Fáil’s Frank Chambers – a scenario most people had thought unlikely but ultimately happened because geography trumped party affiliation.

Geography will matter in next Friday’s election because there is a big imbalance between the numbers of candidates in the north and south of the county. The following is the share of candidates per electoral area: Ballina (2), Belmullet (2), Castlebar (5), Claremorris (3), Swinford (2) and Westport (2). Put simply, there are 10 candidates in the south of the county versus six in the north, and half of the candidates are in Castlebar or Claremorris. That has to count for something, especially when one considers that the TG4 poll had the 10 South Mayo candidates taking 59% of the first-preference vote. On that basis, it seems likely that three TDs will come from South Mayo and two from North Mayo, which would effectively rule out Fine Gael’s Mark Duffy (presuming that Calleary and Conway-Walsh are elected). However, Calleary won't be taking anything for granted. He wouldn’t be the first outgoing minister from Ballina to lose his seat – in fact, he’d be the third in 40 years, the others being Paddy O’Toole in 1987 and Dr Tom Moffatt in 2002.

The two big surprises from the TG4 poll were the fairly high level of support for newcomer Keira Keogh (8%) and the disappointing performance of her Fine Gael running mate Martina Jennings (4%). In recent weeks, there has been much talk about a TD for South Mayo (i.e. Claremorris/Ballinrobe area), but the combined vote for Jennings and Independent Patsy O’Brien would still be well short of a quota. 

Keira Keogh is attempting to retain the Westport seat held for the past 30 years by the redoubtable Michael Ring, who averaged over 12,000 first preferences in six general elections from 1997 to 2020. Ring was never likely to slip away quietly and his wholehearted endorsement for Keogh, who missed out narrowly in the local elections in Westport last June, has the potential to turn this race on its head. If they manage to retain the seat for Westport, it will be a victory that will be right up there with Ring’s famous by-election success in 1994, and geography certainly favours Keogh if she can stay ahead of O’Brien and Jennings, and not allow Duffy to open up a wide margin early on.

The TG4 poll puts Lisa Chambers in contention for a return to the Dáil but she will need to be higher than 10% (she lost her seat with 10% of the vote in 2020) if she is to complete the comeback. Chambers’ biggest threat could be from Paul Lawless, the Aontú candidate who won a seat on Mayo County Council last June, having suffered defeats in the local and general elections in 2019 and 2020.

Lawless needs a few things to fall in his favour but a path to victory is possible, especially if Rose Conway-Walsh does not need a large transfer from running mate Gerry Murray to get over the line. In 2020, Lawless enjoyed a healthy transfer from Sinn Féin and there is every chance it could happen again – Murray will have a lot of votes and geography also favours Lawless. The Aontú man is also best-placed to benefit from transfers from Independent Stephen Kerr and some of Martina Jennings’ vote might make its way to him too if the placings in the opinion poll hold up on election day.

In an election that has not taken off at a national level, the television debate this evening (Tuesday) between the leaders of the three main parties could prove decisive for those final two seats in Mayo. Up to now, Fine Gael has had a bad election, Fianna Fáil is holding its own while Independents, Aontú and, to a lesser extent, Sinn Féin appear to have the late momentum. If that trend continues beyond tonight, Fine Gael will be happy to settle for two seats in Mayo (Dillon and one of Keogh or Duffy), Conway-Walsh and Calleary will retain their seats and the final seat will come down to a battle between Chambers, Lawless and Patsy O’Brien. On a really good day for Sinn Féin, Gerry Murray – one of the best councillors in Mayo over the last three decades – might also be in the hunt for a seat.

O’Brien's elimination could elect Keogh, or at least put her into an unassailable position, leaving Chambers and Lawless battling for the final seat with Duffy struggling for transfers in a race dominated by South Mayo candidates. For the sake of making a prediction, we’re going to go with the following five – Dillon, Conway-Walsh, Calleary, Keogh and Chambers – but there are at least five other scenarios that are equally plausible in this wide-open race in Mayo.

Finally, the best of luck to all of the 16 candidates who have had the courage to put their names on the ballot paper. They deserve our respect and gratitude – and, most of all, they deserve a strong turnout.