Election 2014: Castlebar is the ultimate election battleground

No of Seats: 7

Candidates (19): Harry Barrett (Non-Party); Aidan Browne (Social Democrats); Cyril Burke (Fine Gael); Joe Daly (PBP - Solidarity); Ger Deere (Fine Gael); Blackie Gavin (Fianna Fáil); Donal Geraghty (Independent Ireland); Donna Hyland (Sinn Féin); Uddin Kamal (Labour Party); Stephen Kerr (Non-Party); Michael Kilcoyne (Non-Party); Brendan Lavelle (Non-Party); Gerry Loftus (Non-Party); Al McDonnell (Fianna Fáil); Martin McLoughlin (Fianna Fáil); Tom Moran (The Irish People); Maura O'Sullivan (Sinn Féin); Maksym Shalomon (Non-Party); Donna Sheridan (Fine Gael). 

Only a brave man or woman would try to predict the outcome of the election in the seven-seat Castlebar area. All seven outgoing councillors return to the fray while four of the defeated candidates from 2019 are also back on the ballot paper, while several newcomers will fancy their chances of causing an upset. 

Independent Cllr Michael Kilcoyne topped the poll five years ago with 2,592 first preferences, the second-highest total in Mayo in 2019. Long-serving Fianna Fáil councillor Blackie Gavin also exceeded the quota with 1,779 votes (the quota was 1,731) while party colleague Al McDonnell, who has contested every local election since 1985, took 1,591 votes. 

The Fine Gael duo of Ger Deere and Cyril Burke finished with 1,278 and 1,192 votes respectively, and comfortably held their seats. The final two seats were filled by Martin McLoughlin (Fianna Fáil) and Donna Sheridan (Fine Gael), who also happened to finish in sixth and seventh respectively, so the top seven vote-getters took the seven seats, which isn't always the case in our PR system. 

Of the defeated candidates who are running again, Harry Barrett polled a creditable 620 votes in 2019 and proved very transfer-friendly, doubling his vote during the various counts to finish just 93 votes behind Martin McLoughlin (who had been 300 votes ahead of Barrett at the end of the first count). If Barrett can gain another 100 to 200 first preferences, he will be in with a real chance of making up for the bitter disappointment of five years ago.

The task is that bit harder for Gerry Loftus and Joe Daly who polled 552 and 437 first preferences respectively in 2019. Loftus will benefit from his high-profile involvement in the campaign to retain the GP service in his native Lahardane but he also has a rival candidate on his doorstep in the form of Aidan Browne, of the Social Democrats, so that complicates matters. Realistically, Joe Daly will need to increase his vote by more than 50% to be competitive, while Kamal Uddin faces an uphill task after taking 143 votes the last time.

Sinn Féin is running two candidates, Donna Hyland and Maura O'Sullivan, and will hope to take at least one seat. Donna Hyland appears to be the party's best hope but she will face stiff competition in the Balla/Manulla area from Cyril Burke, Al McDonnell and Donna Sheridan. 

Donal Geraghty of Independent Ireland ran for a seat in Castlebar in 2014 when he took 265 votes. It will be interesting to see what progress he has made over the past decade in building up a stronger vote base. 

One of the big unknowns in Castlebar is Independent candidate Stephen Kerr who has gained prominence on social media through his opposition to the Government's immigration policies. A native of Breaffy, Kerr will need to get a large first-preference vote because he may struggle for transfers. 

Aidan Browne has to attract a decent vote in Castlebar to complement the first preferences from his native Lahardane. The Social Democrats message should appeal to a younger cohort in the county town so it will be interesting to see where he is at the end of the first count. If he manages to get in front of Loftus, he could cause an upset. 

Brendan Lavelle is someone who has been very vocal in campaigning for his native Keenagh but he too will need to get votes from Castlebar to be in contention. Of the other candidates, Tom Moran (The Irish People) and Maksym Shalomon (Non-Party) face a tough task in their debut election. 

Castlebar will be one of the hardest-fought of the six electoral areas in Mayo and none of the outgoing councillors will surrender their seats easily. However, it seems unlikely that all seven will be returned, but predicting the eventual outcome is virtually impossible. A long count, and possibly a recount, seems inevitable.