Rossies look to reset but evidence points to Mayo victory

First the bad news. The last time Mayo began their championship in New York they returned and were immediately knocked out of Connacht by Roscommon. The good news? There’s every chance that what happened in 2019 was an aberration, for every other time that Mayo have gotten their provincial title hopes underway across the Atlantic – 1999, 2004, 2009 and 2014 – they have succeeded in lifting the Nestor Cup. Those four seasons amounted to twelve wins from twelve games, with victories over Roscommon and Galway included every year too. What’s more, Mayo reached either the All-Ireland semi-final or final in three of those four years.

Maybe it’s that Mayo – the players and supporters alike – traditionally draw strength from the bonding attached to commencing a Connacht campaign overseas because after their last four visits to London as well, three times Mayo have ended those seasons in All-Ireland finals (2016, 2006 and 1996) and they reached the All-Ireland semi-final on the other occasion (2011).

If we’re to be brutally honest though, any sort of replication this year, for example a Connacht title and a trip to the last four of the All-Ireland Championship, would probably represent the higher altitude of most supporters’ expectations. Of course, that could all change in the instance of a comprehensive victory over Roscommon at Dr Hyde Park next Sunday (it never takes much to get us going), but for all the high spirit that was on display in the Big Apple it’s probably fair to describe as ‘lowkey’, the mood among Mayo fans in these early throes of Championship 2024. And that might be no bad thing whatsoever.

More often than not, the five league points accumulated by Galway this season would not keep a team in Division 1 while Roscommon did actually suffer demotion to Division 2, so there’s no doubt that Mayo can be confident in their chances of seeing Kevin McStay become only the second person to manage more than one county to a Connacht SFC title. But there’s a whole load of water to flow down the Moy before that can happen.

McStay learnt little he didn’t know about his team after their 15 points demolition of New York but might actually have been left with some difficult questions for answering. The Empire State had only ever scored one goal in five previous games against Mayo but scored two in the space of eight second-half minutes last Sunday week, slicing open the visitors’ defence with remarkable – and concerning – ease.

“We’ll have a bit of an inquest and see how they came about,” assured McStay after that game. But quality time together has been limited because of the team’s need to recuperate from the exertions of transatlantic travel.

One obvious option to explore, particularly if Diarmuid O’Connor and Jordan Flynn become available for selection this week, would be to return David McBrien from the midfield area to the defensive role he had greatly impressed in during McStay’s debut year in charge. But as for parachuting Padraig O’Hora or Enda Hession or Donnacha McHugh into the team, if there’s one thing we can say for certain about the Mayo management it’s that they like to stick with what they know. For example, believe it or not, the team that started against New York included 13 of the team that had started against Galway on January 28 in Round 1 of the Allianz Football League, with the only absentees in New York being Flynn and Conor Reid.

And if all that sounds familiar it’s because last year, the team that McStay selected for the Allianz Football League Division 1 final on April 2 was the same as what he had selected in all bar three positions for his very first game in charge – a charity challenge against Sligo – some four months earlier on January 3.

Such loyalty is coming under increasing scrutiny however, particularly given the overreliance on Ryan O’Donoghue to provide scores. Never mind the 29 points that the Belmullet man has scored from frees or marks this season, O’Donoghue has also struck 1-14 from play compared to 0-1 by Tommy Conroy and 0-2 by Aidan O’Shea, his mainstay colleagues in the full-forward line, over the same run of games.

It makes you wonder how Paul Towey must feel considering he has scored 1-5 off only two starts and three more brief appearances as a substitute. Even Darren McHale has scored 1-3 despite starting just one game compared to the six and seven starts respectively that Conroy and O’Shea have enjoyed this season.

In a nutshell then, two players who have scored 0-3 between them from 13 starts combined are preferred over two players who have scored 2-8 between them from three starts.

It’s not that everyone is necessarily questioning the selection of the former, more so their positioning, with many believing the devastating pace of Tommy Conroy would pose a far greater threat to opposition defences were his starting point on the ’45 as opposed to near the end line where he regularly ends up facing – and running – away from the posts.

And nor could anyone be certain what Mayo’s midfield partnership will be next Sunday. Ruane and McBrien? Ruane and Carney? Ruane and O’Connor? Ruane and Flynn? Carney and Flynn? It could be any of those, or none, given O’Shea, Stephen Coen and even Bob Tuohy all seem to have featured there at some point along the road too.

The upside perhaps is that if we’re still that uncertain, imagine how difficult it is for Roscommon to know exactly what to prepare for, on top of which their manager Davy Burke has been having to enthuse a panel that picked up only three points from a possible fourteen during their doomed Division 1 campaign – and whose most underwhelming performance in all seven games quite possibly came when they lost 0-15 to 0-9 to Mayo in Castlebar.

Their best, if you are to believe Burke, came in the first 50-minutes of their final-round game against Derry. The scoreboard had read 1-8 apiece early in the second-half but between there and full-time the Shannonsiders were outscored 1-11 to 0-1 and slumped to their heaviest defeat of the season. The most remarkable statistic of the afternoon at Celtic Park was that Mickey Harte’s side had scored 2-18 of their 2-19 tally from play. And in the round before, 1-16 of the 1-17 that Kerry scored against Roscommon was also from play, with the other point coming when David Clifford fired over a penalty. If the original goal had stood, the entirety of Kerry’s score against the Rossies that day might very well have been from play.

Mayo had their own difficulties against Derry, who scored 3-12 of their 3-15 from play in Castlebar and who since rubberstamped themselves as genuine All-Ireland contenders by overcoming Dublin in one of the great National League finals. But for anyone who might be of the opinion that Roscommon actually boast more ‘natural’ forwards than Mayo, it’s worth nothing that across the top two divisions only Kildare scored less than David Burke’s team this season.

There’s another ‘but’ though, and it’s quite a big one because Mayo, as already referenced, are not the most prolific scorers from play, particularly if stacking their stats from those final two league rounds against those of Kerry and Derry, with Mayo reliant on thirteen points from frees (11), marks (1) and 45s (1) against the Oak Leafers and Monaghan.

Roscommon are already without Cathal Heneghan for next weekend’s Connacht semi-final as the Michael Glaveys player has a knee injury that could keep him out until the All-Ireland Series. A serious shoulder injury has also ended 2024 debutant Evan Flynn’s season but on a more positive note, it’s understood that both midfielder Keith Doyle and attacking ace Ben O’Carroll will be available for selection having resumed full training of late. O’Carroll was a star of St Brigid’s run to the All-Ireland Club Final and shortlisted for GAA Club Footballer of the Year.

Enda Smith remains the player who makes Roscommon tick and his subduing by Donnacha McHugh was key to Mayo’s triumph when the teams clashed in MacHale Park earlier this year. Full-back Brian Stack and the experienced Niall Daly will aim to galvanise a defence that has had four weeks to repair its leaks while up top, this year’s Sigerson Cup star Daire Cregg will feature with Diarmaid Murtagh and Donie Smith, or possibly O’Carroll, in a full-forward line that carries a significant threat once the supply is forthcoming.

If Mayo aren’t to win the ‘big one’ this year, the Nestor Cup stands Kevin McStay’s only realistic chance of a trophy. He’ll expect his players to reflect his personal desire.

“Winning your provincial title is a big achievement,” he said at this year’s championship launch. “The few medals I have I cherish them, a lot of effort went into winning them, whatever the grade was. I’m a big supporter of the Connacht championship and I hope it continues forever.” 

New York is old news. Now comes the hard stuff.

Verdict: Mayo

N.B. If Mayo beat Roscommon, they are guaranteed to at least be 2nd seeds in the All-Ireland SFC group stage by virtue of being provincial finalists. Should they lose however, they would rank as 3rd seeds having finished in the top four of NFL Division 1.

1st seeds are the four provincial champions, 2nd seeds are the four provincial runners-up, 3rd seeds are the next four highest-ranked teams in this year’s National League and 4th seeds are the next four highest-ranked teams in the league.