Mayo head for Hyde with fighting chance

Stephen Coen is nothing but affable. But even he seemed to bristle at the suggestion by an Ulster journalist in the wake of Mayo’s victory over Tyrone last Saturday week, that the reason everyone loved watching Mayo play was because of their inconsistency. Or to put it another way, their ability to surprise; that you’re never just sure what Mayo side is going to turn up or what they’re going to produce on any given day.

“But who’s consistent?” replied Coen. “If every team wants to be consistent, then everyone has to be inconsistent.” 

And it is a quite remarkable thing that of the sixteen teams still looking to stay in the race for Sam Maguire, only Kerry have yet to experience a championship defeat this summer. And yet there is something quite consistent about Mayo, something which is specific to their task of having to get a result against Donegal next Sunday if wanting to extend their championship run by one more game at least. And it’s something that might just unnerve a superstitious Donegal footballer if he were to think too long or too hard about it this week.

For seven games running now, six in the Allianz Football League and one in championship (2019 in Castlebar), Mayo have not lost to Donegal. In fact, the Tir Chonaill county has only won of the last nine league games against the Green and Red, who have also won the last three championship meetings. Indeed, since Donegal edged out Mayo in the 2012 All-Ireland SFC final, the latter have managed a result in eleven of the fourteen games played subsequently, so with even a draw guaranteed to send Mayo into an All-Ireland SFC preliminary quarter-final, it’s no wonder that ticket sales for Sunday’s showdown at Dr Hyde Park are reported as being very brisk.

And then, of course, there is Mayo’s consistency at the Roscommon venue itself, which could also be hugely significant. Not since 2001 has a Mayo senior football team lost a match at the Hyde, a run that extends to thirteen games, eleven of which have been in championship. Along with six victories over the Rossies, there have been two wins over Sligo, one each against Limerick and Cavan, and, of course, last year’s draw against Dublin. League wins over Roscommon came in 2016 and 2013.

So all things told, it would appear a quite generous thing that several bookmakers have Mayo rated as 11/4 to win this decisive All-Ireland SFC Group 1 encounter while placing Donegal as slim as 4/11 to triumph. That would suggest the oddsmakers are prepared to read more into recent events over those of a more historical nature, and specifically Donegal’s nineteen points annihilation of a Cavan team that in its previous game had been unfortunate to only beat Mayo – in Mayo – by three points.

But the thing about this championship grouping to date is that, rightly or wrongly, caveats have been added to almost every scoreline.

That the cause of Mayo’s surprise home loss to Cavan was the hangover associated with the disappointment of their narrowest of Connacht SFC final defeats to Galway.

That the cause of Donegal’s surprise home loss to Tyrone was the hangover associated with the enjoyment of their narrowest of Ulster SFC wins against All-Ireland champions Armagh.

That the cause of Tyrone’s surprise home to loss to Mayo was the hangover associated with celebrating their narrowest of championship wins against Donegal.

That the cause of Cavan’s heavy home loss to Donegal was the hangover associated with a mid-table Division 3 side celebrating a victory away to this year’s Division 1 finalists.

The truth is, no one can predict how events will unfold on Shannonside next Sunday, except that in all likelihood it will be box office.

“We have found ourselves in this position the last two seasons going into the final game. We know we’ve got to go and get a result and we’ll be doing all in our power,” assured Stephen Rochford after he took charge of Mayo for the very welcome seven points triumph in Omagh last Saturday week.

“That was not anywhere near a complete performance,” he warned defiantly, adding: “We will go after that because we know that we need to be better when we play Donegal.” 

Michael Murphy is one of six Donegal players who started against Cavan last Sunday week (he contributed seven points) and who also started in the county’s 1-14 to 1-10 defeat to Mayo in the 2019 All-Ireland SFC Quarter-Final Phase 3 knockout match in MacHale Park. The other five are Ryan McHugh, Hugh McFadden, Ciaran Thompson, Paddy McBrearty and Michael Langan, while Oisin Gallen appeared off the bench in both matches.

In contrast, Stephen Coen, Paddy Durcan and Aidan O'Shea are the only Mayo players in contention to start both games, albeit Mattie Ruane and Fergal Boland were used as substitutes six years ago.

If there’s a trick that Stephen Rochford has up his sleeve for this weekend, it’ll take a good – and a brave – one to beat throwing Conal Dawson, Sean Morahan and Bob Tuohy into the fire against Tyrone last time out. The impact that Davitt Neary carried when sprung from the bench too, is such that it would probably be an even braver call not to include the Breaffy dynamo from the start this time around.

The availability of Donnacha McHugh would be a massive boost, after injury forced him to sit out the trip to Tyrone, but in his potential continued absence the duty of marking Michael Murphy may well fall upon David McBrien, which in itself would be a mouthwatering prospect as a dual.

All the evidence to date is that Donegal carry a greater attacking threat than Mayo, who relied on six points from play by defenders Paddy Durcan (three), Rory Brickenden (two) and Jack Coyne in their win against Tyrone. The Mayo forward line scored 1-5 from play, which was as much as corner-forward Conor Donnell scored on his own against Cavan for Donegal, who also had Shane O’Donnell and Oisin Gallen, who was only introduced at half-time, score three points apiece. Exciting corner-back Finnbarr Roarty hit a goal and fellow defenders Peadar Mogan, Ryan McHugh and Ciaran Moore struck a point apiece, to highlight the balance within Jim McGuinness’ team.

Whether all that is enough to tumble the traditions that appear to favour Mayo, is exactly why King and Moffatt Dr Hyde Park is expected to sell out. With a capacity of just 20,000, half of the tickets had already been sold over the weekend, including the unreserved seating area on the stand side of the ground.

This is championship just as it should be.