Green and Red deserve their narrow favourite's tag

There is no other rivalry in Gaelic football quite like it and another chapter will be written this Sunday as the two aul enemies face off once again to see where the Nestor Cup resides for the next year They have met 94 times in championship, with Mayo winning 45 to Galway’s 43 (with six draws). Of the 94 games played, only two have not been provincial matches; in 2019, an All-Ireland qualifier in Limerick, and last year in the All-Ireland preliminary quarter-final.

44 of these matches were Connacht finals and Mayo also hold a slender advantage over the Tribesmen in this department, 23 to 21, the last coming back in 2021 in what was the first to be played in Croke Park.

More than the usual bragging rights are on the line with this one. With both counties tied at 48 Connacht titles apiece, the chance to stand alone as the competition’s most successful side is at stake. Coupled with this, at this moment in time, it would appear either side’s only realistic chance of a title over the next few months so this is probably as big a Connacht final as any in recent memory.

Both teams are coming into this final, however, on the back of underwhelming leagues and stuttering championships to date, Galway more so. Mayo secured their place in Division 1 for 2025, with convincing wins over Roscommon and Galway as well as narrow victories against Monaghan and All-Ireland champions Dublin. But consistency has been a major issue for Kevin McStay’s side since the Ballina man took over; as good as the wins over Galway and Roscommon were, defeats to Tyrone and Derry were not at all pretty.

Mayo, as expected, did see off New York with relative ease, but coughed up two easy goals and there was a feeling of uncertainty going into the semi-final against Roscommon. It wasn’t spectacular by any means but Mayo got the job done over a misfiring Roscommon. McStay called the performance a ‘six and a half, touching seven’ out of ten and it was probably an accurate description.

So, the positives? Ryan O’Donoghue was getting a little more help from his teammates in attack. Aidan O’Shea struck a vital goal while Tommy Conroy, Fergal Boland and substitute Conor Loftus each kicked two points – but more will be required with the Belmullet ace likely to be very tightly marked in Salthill.

At the back, David McBrien was excellent. The Ballaghaderreen man is central to Mayo’s defence, whether at three or six, and like O’Donoghue, Mayo supporters will be clutching their rosary beads and praying he stays fit, especially if captain Paddy Durcan fails to recover in time after being withdrawn early in the second-half against Roscommon.

An issue for Mayo has been kickouts, mainly trying to win their own. Derry, in the National League, showed the damage that can be done on pushing up on Colm Reape’s restarts. It cannot all be blamed on the Knockmore man though, as the lack of a ball-winning midfielder, candidates we were once blessed with for many a year, has seen opposition teams take full advantage. If options are not appearing for Reape, this will continue to happen.

Diarmuid O’Connor’s return would be a boost to counteract that and it will be interesting to see if the Mayo management throw him straight into the middle alongside Matthew Ruane. Cillian O’Connor and Eoghan McLaughlin were also training the morning of the Roscommon match and their returns would also give McStay some welcome headaches in his 26-matchday squad.

If form goes out the window for this one, then Padraic Joyce will gladly take his side’s displays this year and chuck them out a 50-storey building. Their loss of form is nothing short of perplexing.

Galway used their nine lives and get out of jail free card when given the fright of a lifetime against Sligo in the Connacht semi-final. A repeat of that performance would mean a long afternoon for them, but there will be abelief that if there is a time and a place to ignite their championship, it’s a Connacht final against Mayo in Salthill. And don’t forget, the Tribesmen, for all their struggles, are looking to win a third Nestor Cup in-a-row and a first triple since doing so 1982 to 1984.

Galway are not short of quality but Joyce was unable to call on many of his big guns during the league because of injuries. Two massive boosts for Galway against the Black and White were the returns of attacking dynamos Shane Walsh and Damien Comer. It was Walsh’s first competitive action since January while Comer returned from a three-month spell on the sidelines with a hamstring injury. Were it not for his impressive cameo off the bench, there wouldn’t be a Connacht final for Galway to worry about. Walsh looked understandably rusty but it was much-needed championship minutes for the Kilmacud Crokes forward.

One man who certainly was sharp was Rob Finnerty. He kicked 1-5 against Sligo, all but one point from play. The son of Mayo’s Anthony Finnerty, he will need close attention on Sunday and it will be interesting to see who marks him as well as who picks up Comer and Walsh should they start.

Another black cloud hanging over Joyce is Galway’s dismal record over Mayo in recent meetings. Since he was named manager at the end of 2019. They have played eight times across league and championship and won only once, which was in the 2022 Connacht quarter-final in Castlebar. Their record in Salthill against Mayo also makes grim reading. Galway’s last win over Mayo was in the 2018 National League. The 2017 Connacht semi-final was Galway’s last win over Mayo in Salthill in the championship but you have to go back to July 10, 2005 for the last time Galway beat Mayo on home-turf in the Connacht final. Joyce played on the day and kicked two points and that was ultimately the difference.

Another three-in-a-row that Galway are hoping to avoid is a third straight defeat to Mayo in Salthill. Mayo pipped them in the All-Ireland preliminary quarter-final last year and beat Galway out the gate when they met in the National League back in January.

That does not look a likely prospect this Sunday afternoon but whether it’s by one point or ten, it doesn’t matter. Winning is all that matters and for Mayo, they have the edge in recent years and that might just be enough.