Beating Donegal is a big but not impossible ask of Green and Red
Conor O'Donnell of Donegal reacts to a miss against Mayo in his side's Division 1 defeat earlier this year. Picture: INPHO/James Lawlor
A group game it may be, but it is knockout football from hereon as Mayo’s championship hopes are on the line against Donegal next Sunday in Dr Hyde Park.
With Cavan and Tyrone picking up unlikely wins over Mayo and Donegal in Round 1, and Mayo and Donegal comprehensively beating Tyrone and Cavan respectively, the ‘Group of Death’ has certainly lived up to its billing.
Of the possible permutations, there are two scenarios which will see definitely Mayo out of the championship: if Mayo lose to Donegal and Tyrone beat Cavan (Mayo will be bottom on head-to-head after the loss to Cavan), or Mayo lose to Donegal and Tyrone and Cavan draw. Mayo could still advance after a defeat to Donegal should Cavan beat Tyrone (Mayo would be ahead of Tyrone on head-to-head) but given how Donegal hammered Cavan, it looks an unlikely prospect.
Simply put: if Mayo beat or draw with Donegal, they will advance to a Preliminary Quarter-Final at a minimum – and Mayo’s record against Donegal over the past decade gives cause for hope. Since the 2012 All-Ireland final defeat, Mayo and Donegal have met 12 times and lost only once, which was in the 2015 Division 1 League. The three meetings in the championship since 2012 have all gone Mayo’s way – the comprehensive wins in the 2013 and 2015 All-Ireland quarter-finals as well as the victory over Donegal in Castlebar in the Super 8s in 2019.
So does that lead to plenty of belief that Mayo will overcome Donegal? Despite a morale-boosting win over Tyrone, optimism across the county that the Green and Red can pull it off does not appear to be very high.
Indeed, Mayo supporters have voted with their feet since the Connacht final against Galway with regards to the faith they have in the team. A paltry crowd of 7,387 was in Castlebar for that shock loss to Cavan (a game that was not even televised) and only a couple of hundred went up to Omagh two weeks later. But in typical Mayo fashion, the players came out all guns blazing and deservedly beat Tyrone, although it must be said that the Red Hands looked very flat after their gruelling game against Donegal six days previously.
While Mayo’s work-rate, intensity and overall general play was woeful against Cavan, they played against Tyrone like men possessed. No one encapsulated that more than captain Paddy Durcan, who in his first start for Mayo in over a year played like a man who had not been out with an ACL injury the previous twelve months.
Aidan O’Shea, Ryan O’Donoghue, Darren McHale, Jack Coyne and David McBrien all stepped up with tremendous performances and they will need to replicate that again if they are to get a result against Donegal.
He might only like a kick of the ball from Dr Hyde Park, but it is highly unlikely that Kevin McStay will be in the dugout after missing the Tyrone game following a medical episode, so interim manager Stephen Rochford will likely call all the shots again. The Crossmolina man made some bold calls in handing first championship starts to Conal Dawson and Sean Morahan, while Bob Tuohy made his first since the game in New York in 2024.
The three men did their chances of holding onto the jerseys no harm whatsoever while the impact off the bench from Jordan Flynn and Davitt Neary that evening could also see them return to the starting lineup.
Diarmuid O'Connor is back in the matchday squad, while the Donegal game is likely to come too soon for Eoghan McLaughlin. The return of Tommy Conroy, who is understood to be back in full training, would be a welcome boost.
With all that said, a win over Donegal looks a big ask and the back-to-back Ulster champions, outside of that defeat to Tyrone in Ballybofey, are among the leading contenders for Sam Maguire.
After the sensational return of Jim McGuinness to the Donegal hotseat last year, another big comeback in the shape of Michael Murphy has given another boost to the men from Tír Chonaill. David McBrien or Donnacha McHugh may get the job of marking the Glenswilly man in what would be the biggest challenges of their inter-county careers to date.
As well as Murphy, in Eoghan Ban Gallagher, Patrick McBrearty, Oisin Gallen, Shane O’Donnell, Hugh McFadden and Conor McDonnell, Donegal have an array of weapons that can hurt Mayo at any given moment.
The bookmakers make Mayo big outsiders at 3/1, but Mayo have already shocked one Ulster outfit this month. Would you bet against them doing so again?
