Predicting the Endgame of an epic Mayo Super League relegation battle
Feeling blue: Claremorris (in green) found the net three times against Kiltimagh/Knock United but problems at the other end see them bottom of the Super League table. It looks likely they will stay there but stranger things have happened. Picture: John Corless
It could have been all over with a Manulla victory. Three points would have seen them four points clear of Crossmolina with Mick Duffy’s side still to play Westport United and Castlebar Celtic but instead, Manulla lost by four goals.
This year’s relegation run-in has been one of the more interesting stories in the local soccer, with Celtic running roughshod at the other end of the table and last week’s results have added to the drama. We’re in the Endgame now!
Claremorris, Manulla and Crossmolina are the teams currently stuck in the heap at the bottom of the table and only two can go down. With 14 and 15 points in 7th and 6th respectively, Ballinrobe Town and Kiltimagh/Knock United look relatively safe.
They will tell you that they are not safe until it is mathematically proven but it would take a serious swing in the fortunes of at least two of the bottom three for either Ballinrobe or KK to drop. So, we are disregarding them for now, particularly K/K on 15 points and another point should do it for Ballinrobe with regards to their safety.
Let’s go through each team one-by-one and the games they have remaining and calculate their odds of survival.
It is tough at the top but maybe we all expected better from Claremorris this season after bouncing straight back up from Premier last year. It will be an uphill task if they are to survive this year but they are fortunate in that they will play two of the sides surrounding them in their remaining three games.
It is win-at-all-costs stuff because a defeat is obviously no good in these games and a draw is a surefire way for Claremorris to say; we’re going down but we’re probably taking you with us.
Ballyheane are quietly having a really good season with only three defeats on the board, two of which were against Ballinrobe Town. Claremorris could gain an advantage here if Ballyheane are tired playing catch-up having played two less fixtures than most of the rest of the division but a home win looks more likely. Prediction: L, +0.
Crossmolina have enjoyed a very slight improvement in their fortunes of late. They had lost five on the bounce after beating Manulla but have taken some points including that crucial victory over the Blues at the weekend. It is very likely that these teams cancel each other out. Prediction: D, +1.
What we have here is two teams who don’t really like each other, both clawing to potentially stay in the division, on the final day of the season. It is going to be crazy and chaotic and is very difficult to call. My first prediction is that there will be at least one red card and my second is that Manulla, in classic Manulla fashion, win this game. Prediction: L, +0.
Manulla have lost their last nine league games in-a-row and nothing they try seems to show any sign of altering their fortunes. The re-signing of Andrew Shally from Ballina Town was the latest attempt to instill renewed vigour in a team who have limped their way through this season after a promising start. They have used more than 45 players in the League this season and very little has stuck.
Now more than ever, they need someone, anyone, to step up and get the goals for them. They have gone over 300 minutes without a goal, since Odhran O’Connor’s consolation goal, only their 14th in the League this season, in a 5-1 defeat to Ballyheane.
It has been a difficult couple of weeks for Ballinrobe Town but this is the game where they will turn it around and secure their Super League status for next season. They should have done it with a point against Conn Rangers at the weekend but a late goal sent the points north of the county. Prediction: L, +0.
After a slight slump earlier in the season, Westport have recovered well and are poised to end a trophyless campaign in second place behind this juggernaut Castlebar Celtic team. Manulla will need to look elsewhere for the vital points they need. Prediction: L, +0.
Nothing but a win will do for Manulla here. Earlier, I predicted this game will have one red card; lets bump that measly figure up to two and at least a half-dozen yellow cards. If I were Manulla, I’d be hoping to lose. A year in Premier could do them the world of good, as it has done for Glenhest this year but no one at Manulla wants to see them playing at that level.
You have to hand it to Mick Duffy. 2024 is probably up there with his most stressful as a manager. Crossmolina started the season hanging onto the edge of the cliff by their fingertips. Along the way, everyone has come along and stepped on those grasping hands, some with spiked heels, and yet they still hang on.
The abyss had calling Crossmolina. Of the teams stranded below, they had been most likely to drop given their run-in but that win over Manulla has given them some hope.
Victory over Manulla will have given Crossmolina’s confidence a massive boost but the Coveys are in immaculate form right now. It won’t be a hiding, like the 11-0 win Westport enjoyed at home in May, but Crossmolina will be left to sweat for another few weeks after this. Prediction: L, +0.
This game has been discussed already and it hard to see past the two teams cancelling them out. Prediction: D, +1.
On the last day of the season, Crossmolina welcome the Connacht Cup, Westaro Cup and Super League Champions who will be very likely looking to make it back-to-back seasons unbeaten in the League. Nothing short of Zidane’s three-in-a-row Champions League winning team making the starting lineup for Crossmolina would give them a chance. Even then, Celtic would give them a game in their current form. Prediction: L, +0.
Claremorris, 10th, 7 points, Manulla/Crossmolina, joint 8th/9th, 12 points, Crossmolina win the resulting relegation playoff.
First things first, it is goodbye Claremorris. When they got relegated in 2022, it came after starting their season really poorly and then taking much too long to turn things around. It is an eerily similar story in 2024. Their early-season form in the Cups disguised how poor they were in the Super League, in fact, it took them eight games to get their first and only win on the board.
If things go as predicted, then it will take a relegation playoff to determine who is to be relegated out of these two teams. Crossmolina have hit their stride at the right time however, and with key names back in the team, would probably win a straight playoff against Manulla. What a day out at Umbro Park that could be.
This is, of course, just a prediction. Hang it on the dressing room walls in Concannon Park, Kilmurray and Carramore if you have to but keep in mind, things could change as rapidly as the next game week. If Manulla beat Ballinrobe, it takes them to 12 points and drags Ballinrobe back into the mix. If Claremorris beat Manulla and Crossmolina in their last three games, it takes them to 12 points and alters things dramatically. If Crossmolina beat Celtic and get relegated anyways? It is entirely possible, should Manulla take 6/9 remaining points and Claremorris take 9/9.
It is what makes it all so exciting and local soccer enthusiasts will be hanging onto every minute in the weeks ahead.
