The most important task this week is to vote

What can we expect from the local and European elections? Who will win the battle between the parties, and which candidates will win the battles within them? Just how well will independents do, and what will be the deciding issues and factors? Will public sentiment on immigration play as big a role in the outcome as many are suggesting? And what will the results tell us about the state of play, locally and nationally, in what might be a general election year?

The answers to those questions are in your hands. We vote on Friday.

In elections past, either the economy or the health service or both would have been the big issues. Not so this time. This time the big ticket issues have been immigration, housing and the lingering cost of living effects from inflation. In our part of the world, the ‘green agenda’ and how it impacts farming has also been a big issue. Fewer have mentioned the ongoing damage to our natural environment.

Meanwhile, the work of getting elected is proceeding on the ground, especially in the local elections. Candidates are busily working their patches. The good ones do it with – in every meaning of this term – intelligence. Politicians don’t just randomly go out canvassing. They first figure out: where is my vote and how can I tap it? New and established candidates approach that differently.

New candidates are full of fresh energy. They will have thought hard to find the line that explains why people should give them a chance. The usual is that our little part of the world has been forgotten. That’s the easy bit. The hard bit is persuading the voter that this new candidate can make it memorable.

Sitting councillors meanwhile need to hold that point of view at bay, so they are going back through their case work file, the list of all the people they have helped: a useful intervention here, a letter written there, a little nudge to get something of practical importance done. A call to the door is a way of reminding the person of that help, preferably without ever needing to mention it. There will be calls to a local supporter asking them to spread the word – gently – in the village. If they sat in the front seat with you while you canvassed all the better. There will be a text or other message – even a letter! – to people around the district, to re-make a family or other personal connection, with a little plea to not forget me, or to ‘see what you can do’. This is political haymaking, the time when a local politician gathers the harvest. Bringing in that vote will keep candidates very busy between now and polling day.

Those gentle traditions in our politics are being disrupted, bringing worrying changes in how our campaigns are conducted. There has been a lot of unpleasantness towards candidates. Posters have been cut down, damaged or defaced. People are not as comfortable about canvassing as they once were. We would miss that tradition badly if it went.

How will the elections go? The Taoiseach will be hoping that the energy he has brought to his role will shore up the Fine Gael vote. Likewise for Fianna Fáil, who will hope that their strong Euro tickets will return seats in each constituency and thus reduce focus on what will likely be local losses. Both of those parties will be challenged by the deep sense of dissatisfaction that is palpable out there – even among their own definite supporters.

Between those two parties, and of local Mayo interest in the Euro elections, is the electoral fate of Lisa Chambers and Maria Walsh. There is a scenario where both could win. There is a scenario where both could lose. If one is eliminated, there will be a lot of interested observers watching to see how much these two Mayo women cross the Civil War lines in transferring to each other, over the heads of geographically far distant party running mates.

Sinn Féin will win lots of new local election seats, right across Mayo and all over the west. Many of those local election winners will be well placed to win extra Dáil seats for the party before long. Barring a major shock, they will certainly win a seat in each Euro constituency. But to what extent will their growth be curtailed by what is widely viewed as the immigration issue?

Linked to those challenges for the three big parties is the rise of independents. How many independents will be elected, and just what will that mean? Is a vote for an independent a statement of opposition to immigration, a general complaint about the state of the country, a lack of trust of established politicians, or a combination? It is hard to argue that it is a vote for a definite platform of policies and views of the type that could govern the country. But that doesn’t mean the expression of support for independents is less important than any other point of view. You can expect a lot of discussion about that as results start coming in.

With a lot more women running for election, it would be a good day if more women are elected. It would be an even better day if more was done to stop them being attacked in the way that is now so common on social media and elsewhere.

Lastly, two pieces of advice related to the European elections. Neither is about who you should give your vote to. As a politician I liked said to a voter one time ‘it’s yours to give’. The first is about how you vote.

In Midlands North-West, this vast constituency we are in, there are 27 candidates for five seats. Yes, that’s right. 27. Imagine being a new teacher, standing in front of your new class, and trying to remember all the names in an instant? So, before you go into vote, have a very good idea in your mind as to who you intend to vote 1, 2 and 3 for. Because if you don’t, you could still be standing there in the polling booth after closing time.

The second is to be sure to go and vote, and when you do be sure it counts. In the last European election in this constituency, 21,628 votes were spoilt. That was mostly because the papers were unmarked, or because it was unclear who the person was voting for, or because there was more than one ‘Number One’. 469 people wrote something on the ballot paper which could identify them. In the local elections in Mayo that same year, 911 votes (1.2% of the total) were spoilt. Some 785 of those were for want of a clear mark of first preference and a further 93 because there was more than one ‘Number One’ indicated.

It’s your vote. Despite what you often hear, you don’t have to use it because somebody died so you could. You don’t owe them that. Voting is something we owe ourselves. So however you vote, vote, and make sure you vote 1, 2, 3, etc on each ballot paper – Local and European – in order of your preference.