Labour won't be cheerleaders for Irish unity

Will Labour definitely win an overall majority in the British General Election, and what would that mean? There is no doubt the Tories are on their way out, but it remains to be seen whether the presumption that Labour will win a comfortable working majority is right. The arithmetic and the politics are not as simple as they appear, but that’s for another article.

For the sake of today’s argument let’s assume Labour end up where they want to be. What would that mean for us here and for Anglo-Irish relations?

In simple terms, it would be good news, in that it would give us a break from all the Brexit excesses of these past eight years. Listening to the Tories whirling themselves into nationalistic knots these past years has not done us good. Their best friends would surely admit it has not exactly been a triumph for them either. Ending all that should lower the political temperature, or reduce the iciness in our relations, whichever metaphor you prefer to use.

That’s how it looks to us, but how do they see it? The Tories in government, and those who support them in the media, are thoroughly fed up with Ireland. They feel they have been lectured to and sneered at since Brexit. They believe we exaggerated the border problem and didn’t play fair in how we handled it. Most people here would deny that, but – in an era where feelings trump all – the Tories don’t feel great about us at all.

The Labour party is different. Most of their leaders were not Brexiteers. While they are now committed to not re-opening that question, they come with fresh hands and hearts to matters Irish. The new Secretary of State for Northern Ireland will likely be Hilary Benn. If you have heard him speak about this island, you will immediately know that would be great news. That said, in fairness to the current Secretary of State, the Brexiteer Chris Heaton-Harris, we should acknowledge that he will be able to leave his job safe in the knowledge that he did a damn good job in putting the pieces back together.

Now, what would that change to Labour amount to in practical terms?

First, a majority Labour government is committed to ending the current government’s idea to remove asylum seekers from Britain to Rwanda, where their claims for asylum can be adjudicated on. It has been hugely controversial and has not yet come into effect. But the possibility of it doing so has strained relations between Ireland and Britain.

It has been widely claimed here that this Rwanda plan on the horizon explains why so many International Protection applicants have been coming to Ireland, and doing so across the border. If that’s right, the ending of the plan should reduce those numbers, and the political tensions arising, such as the recent pretty unseemly spat between the Irish and British governments. It would also mean that a recent court judgment saying that the law to put the plan into effect could not be applied to asylum seekers in Northern Ireland – because of the post-Brexit deal – no longer matters. That should be a real relief for anyone who thought for more than a moment about how that was going to be managed.

Second, while a new Labour government will not rejoin the EU, it will – as quietly as it can – make moves to stabilise and even enhance relations between Britain and the EU. What that means is that for the next few years Britain will not make any major moves to depart from EU standards and regulations.

In fact, it will most likely move towards what is called a ‘dynamic alignment’ with the EU. This means Britain will track and implement changes which are made in the EU’s Single Market, to ensure that British goods can trade relatively freely into and out of the EU. That is good for all our exporters to Britain. It is likely that this process will include a deal on food and sanitary standards, which will certainly help our farmers. But where perhaps this will be most helpful is again in respect of Northern Ireland. The more Britain aligns with the EU, the less burdensome the border in the Irish Sea which was established under the protocol/Windsor Framework needs to become. That too would be great news. The Windsor Framework, which was and is a great success for us, is a running sore for unionists. You can delight in their discomfort if you like, but many will feel glad about reducing the risks from this destabilising factor on our island.

Third, Labour has indicated it will repeal the Legacy Act, passed by the British government on how to deal with Troubles era violence. The Irish government is challenging this law in the European Court of Human Rights. This issue will remain tricky, but there will clearly be a greater openness to managing it in a bilateral way.

All that will make for a much better environment for relations between Ireland and Britain. But, there is an important but. If Britain has changed a lot these last eight years, so have we. Up to 2016, no British government heard such pro-United Ireland talk from an Irish government and political system since the days of Charlie Haughey.

If the British have gone nationalist because of Brexit, we have gone nationalist in response to it. And this is where Labour might surprise people. Anyone who thinks that a Labour government under Sir Keir Starmer will become a cheerleader for a United Ireland is kidding themselves. The new Labour government will make clear, right from the start, that they support the Union. They will wrap the union flag around themselves even if they do not wave it abrasively in anyone’s face. They will be clear that in their view the test for a poll on a United Ireland, as set out in the Good Friday Agreement, is nowhere near being met. Hilary Benn has already said this in opposition.

So, do not expect a poll on that question because of a Labour government, but do expect Labour to commit itself, fully and wholeheartedly, to an Anglo-Irish approach to questions involving Northern Ireland. Gone will be the days of meetings being cancelled at short notice, of our most senior ministers being met by much more junior UK ministers. There will be a warmth that will help solve ongoing political, economic and security issues. And I doubt that would change much if Sinn Féin wins our upcoming election, even if the rhetoric picked up a little.

So if Labour wins this general election comprehensively that’ll be grand for us for five years. But five years won’t be long passing. In opposition, the Tory party will become more rabidly right-wing and nationalist than your ears will believe. There is every chance they will make Trump blush. And when they come back to power – as they have after every disastrous defeat they have had before – that wave will make Brexit seem like a ripple.