Election 2024: Sinn Féin aiming for a seat gain in Ballina

No of Seats: 6 

Candidates (15): David Alexander (Fianna Fáil); Garie Beattie (Non-Party); Antonio Cafolla (Sinn Féin), Joe Doocey (Non-Party); Mark Duffy (Non-Party); Joe Faughnan (Non-Party); Keith Howley (Non-Party); Michael Loftus (Fianna Fáil); Úna Morris (Sinn Féin); Jo Mullen (Non-Party); Jarlath Munnelly (Fine Gael); Willie Nolan (Non-Party); John O'Hara (Fine Gael); Annie May Reape (Fianna Fáil); Hugh Rouse (Fine Gael).

Ballina is one of two local electoral areas in Mayo where change is inevitable. The retirement of Independent Cllr Seamus Weir, after a quarter of a century on Mayo Co Council, creates one vacancy and there will be fierce competition to fill it, not least from the ranks of the Independents.

Remarkably, seven of the 15 candidates running in this area are not affiliated with any political party, including outgoing councillor Mark Duffy who was the headline-grabber in 2019 when he claimed 2,095 first preferences to gain election on the first count. It was a phenomenal performance from the then 27-year-old and prompted speculation that he might run for the general election in early 2020. A repeat showing will be a tall order on Friday but Independents are featuring strongly in opinion polls and Duffy will hope that he can benefit from those national trends.

Of the other independents, the only one with previous political experience is Willie Nolan, who served three terms on the former Ballina Town Council from 1999 until its abolition in 2014. Nolan is the only defeated candidate from 2019 to return to the fray, having taken 388 first preferences at that time. He will need to treble that number to be in the hunt for a seat.

Another Independent, Joe Faughnan, is seeking to retain the Knockmore seat of Seamus Weir, but he will need to attract votes from beyond the Parish of the Backs to be elected. In 2019, Weir took votes from 36 of the 43 booths in the electoral area and was still 600 short of the quota. Faughnan, like many of the non-party newcomers, faces a tough task, and a respectable showing - with an eye to another campaign in five years - might be viewed as a good outcome.

Sinn Féin will have marked Ballina down as a potential seat gain in Mayo, particularly when Seamus Weir announced his retirement. It will be a massive blow to the party if it cannot take a seat in Ballina at a time when national opinion polls put it at around 25%. There is a sense that Sinn Féin's time has come in the North Mayo capital and one of its two candidates will be elected. Antonio Cafolla is based in Ballina while Una Morris lives in Killala but works in the Ballina constituency office of Sinn Féin TD Rose Conway-Walsh.

Bonniconlon-based Fine Gael councillor John O'Hara topped the poll in 2019 with a very impressive 2,123 first preferences and it would be one of the biggest shocks of the day were he to lose his seat. O'Hara should benefit from the departure of Weir, who was a Fine Gael councillor up to 2014, and he will be expected to repeat his poll-topping display.

Of the other Fine Gael candidates, Jarlath Munnelly fell short of the critical 1,000-vote mark in 2019 and there were less than 100 votes between him and defeated Fianna Fáil candidate Eamon Moore. Munnelly will hope to have a slightly less nerve-jangling weekend this time around but he faces some stiff competition in his home turf of Killala, so he can take nothing for granted. The fact that Fine Gael is running three instead of four candidates this time around should benefit Munnelly and possibly Hugh Rouse who will be aiming to take a large vote out of Ballina town. Although he is a newcomer to local politics, Rouse comes from a well-established Ballina family but if he doesn’t get a large first-preference vote he may struggle for transfers unless he gets ahead of Munnelly.

Fianna Fáil’s Annie May Reape is contesting her seventh local election, having first gained a seat in 1991, and while her first-preference total may have dropped in 2019, she is a proven vote-getter who is also very transfer-friendly. She also has the support of local Minister of State Dara Calleary. 

Outgoing Cathaoirleach of Mayo Co Council, Cllr Michael Loftus, faces less competition in his native Crossmolina than he did the last time when he took 1,320 first preferences. A similar display will be good enough to take a seat.

David Alexander, from Killala, is Fianna Fáil’s third candidate and he could be a dark horse in the race, especially if he can emulate the performance of Moore in 2019.

A couple of big shocks cannot be ruled out but it seems more likely that the challengers will end up fighting for Weir’s old seat with the odds stacked in Sinn Féin’s favour.