Election 2024: An upset may be on the cards in Swinford

No of Seats: 4 

Candidates (8): John Caulfield (Fianna Fáil); Neil Cruise (Fine Gael); Adrian Forkan (Fianna Fáil); Sean Forkin (Non-Party); Marion Gordon (The Irish People); Tommy Horan (Aontú); Gerry Murray (Sinn Féin); Antoinette Peyton (Fine Gael); John Sheahan (Sinn Féin).

The four outgoing councillors are bidding to retain their seats in Swinford, but at least one of them is in real danger of losing out. That’s because the most populated town in the electoral area, Swinford, is currently without a councillor. 

Fianna Fáil’s Michael Smyth was elected in 2019 with 1,631 votes but he resigned his seat more than a year ago to be replaced by Kiltimagh-based Adrian Forkan, leaving Swinford without a sitting councillor for the first time in living memory. It is hard to see that anomaly being maintained after Friday.

The favourite to take a seat will be Sinn Féin’s John Sheahan, who was very unlucky to miss out on a seat in 2014 after claiming more than 1,000 first preferences in the then Ballina eight-seater. In the end, he lost out in the 13th count by less than 70 transfers.

However, a surprise candidate could be Antoinette Peyton, from Killasser, who has run a very energetic campaign and will be hoping to attract some youth support to go with the traditional Fine Gael vote in the area.

Geographical factors will be key in this area and each of the principal towns will want to hold onto their local councillor. Kiltimagh is a case in point. It lost its local councillor, Eugene Lavin when it was subsumed into the large Castlebar electoral area in 2014, and Adrian Forkan’s co-option to Mayo Co Council was the first time in a decade that Kiltimagh had its own councillor. In 2019, the Kiltimagh vote was divided almost evenly between six of the candidates, but Forkan is likely to consolidate that vote and if he can then take some Fianna Fáil support from Swinford he will be in business.

John Caulfield is well-established in Kilkelly and took 1,296 first preferences in 2019. A similar performance will be sufficient to see him over the line, but he will know that he has a battle on his hands.

Perennial poll-topper Gerry Murray has been the Sinn Féin flag-bearer in Mayo for over 20 years and he is widely fancied to comfortably hold his seat. In 2019, the Charlestown man was the sole survivor for Sinn Féin in the county and even managed to top the poll, a remarkable feat given the party’s dismal showing in that election. While there is no such thing as a certain seat, Murray is odds-on to be elected.

Neil Cruise faced a real battle in 2019 because he lost a large swathe of territory in the redrafting of the boundaries. He is the only candidate in Foxford but he will need votes from elsewhere, including Kiltimagh, to be safe. However, if he stays ahead of Peyton, he would expect to attract her Fine Gael transfers, which might see him over the line. 

Aontú’s Tommy Horan polled 642 votes the last time – he will need to double that to be in contention. Bohola-based Marion Gordon is running for The Irish People party while the sole Independent in the field is Sean Forkin who attracted 62 votes in 2019.