THE ONLY certainty is that we are in for the mother of all election battles in Mayo. The two opinion polls published by TG4 and the Irish Mail on Sunday essentially confirm what most observers have long suspected about the General Election in Mayo - that it will be utterly impossible to predict the outcome in advance of polling day. We can speculate and calculate all we want but we are all just shooting in the dark, hoping to strike it lucky with our guesstimates.

Opinion polls are notoriously misleading and none of the election candidates in Mayo will be getting overly excited about these latest barometers of public opinion. The fact that there are some glaring differences between the two polls serves as proof of the old adage - coined by Charles J Haughey - that the only opinion poll that matters is the one on election day.

It also has to be conceded that the history of opinion polls in Co Mayo has not been particularly good. In 2002, each of the three local newspapers published opinion polls in advance of the General Election and all three proved wide of the mark. For example, one of the earliest polls that year put Michael Ring at 30 per cent but he ended up with only 13 per cent of the real poll. Jim Higgins appeared to have a safe seat in another poll - in fact, he was set to top the poll - yet he came a cropper to newcomer, John Carty.

But it would be imprudent to simply dismiss the findings of the two latest polls on the basis of past experience. While opinion polls are anything but a definitive guide to the eventual out-come of an election they do offer some sort of insight into voter trends.

What is clear from the two opinion polls in Mayo is that neither of the two main parties - Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael - have much cause for celebration. Both parties have aspirations of taking an ‘overall majority’ in the county - i.e. three seats - but the odds of it happening appear to be lengthening all the time.

Fine Gael and its party leader, Enda Kenny, will be particularly worried about the findings in both polls. The party had parachuted former GAA boss, John O’Mahony, into the field in the obvious hope of using his high profile to win a third seat in Mayo. But the strategy has not worked to date. O’Mahony failed to register a first preference vote in the Irish Mail on Sunday poll while he polled a lowly four per cent in the TG4 ballot paper. In fact, the Ballaghaderreen man was outpolled by Ballina-based Cllr Michelle Mulherin in both polls. Mulherin had been seen as a ‘sweeper’ in some Fine Gael quarters following the convention earlier this year but she is now proving to be the party’s best chance of a third seat.

Yet the Ballina woman will not have great cause for celebration when she assesses these latest findings. She trails her local Fianna Fáil rival, Dara Calleary, in both polls, and would have to rely on transfers from someone like O’Mahony or Kenny if she were to stand any chance of winning a seat.

The performance of Calleary is impressive and will have taken many people by surprise. He polled eight per cent in the Mail on Sunday ballot and 11 per cent in the TG4 poll. In both scenarios he would be in the shake-up for a seat. First preferences are the key for Calleary and Mulherin as they need to stay ahead of each other to secure election. The findings of both polls would suggest that one Ballina candidate will elect the other - unless we have a repeat of the extraordinary scenes in 2002 when Ernie Caffrey’s vote collapsed and Tom Moffatt paid the price for failing to garner votes outside his homebase of Ballina.

Dr Jerry Cowley was the key factor in the 2002 election but his influence is likely to be a little more subdued this time around. Both polls suggest that he will hold his seat, although he will be a little concerned at the lowly six per cent showing in the Irish Mail on Sunday poll. He needs at least eight per cent to be in the fight for the final seat and he needs to stay ahead of Sinn Féin’s Gerry Murray at all costs.

The Sinn Féin man will be more than satisfied with his performance in these polls. He may not take a seat but he will certainly put in a very creditable performance and will be in the race until the final few laps. Ultimately, he will have to depend on transfers to get elected and that is where he may die a death. But he is not to be underestimated. Mayo’s second Independent TD, Beverley Flynn, will be concerned at the findings of both polls. While she remains in contention for the final seat her vote would appear to be down on

2002. Flynn needs to stay ahead of Frank Chambers if she is to retain her seat and in one of the polls - Irish Mail on Sunday - she is trailing the Newport man by two percentage points. We can expect a battle royale between these two old rivals.

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Michael Ring topped the poll in Mayo in 1997 and 2002 and he looks set to do the same again in 2007. His biggest threat comes from his party leader, Enda Kenny, who took 25 per cent of the poll in the Irish Mail on Sunday survey. Ring topped the poll in the TG4 survey with 24 per cent of the vote. Both figures seem incredibly high and would translate into around 15,000 votes or more. It is a wholly unlikely scenario. If either man was to hit the 10,000 mark they would be more than happy. What is clear is that the two should be elected comfortably - barring a totally unexpected reversal in the next nine months. Their surpluses - if they have any - could prove the key to the outcome of the election in Mayo. The fifth sitting TD, John Carty, will not be altogether unhappy with the outcome of these two polls. He is the third best performer in the Irish Mail on Sunday survey with 12 per cent of the total poll and he garners nine per cent in the TG4 poll. Yet he will be anything but sure of his seat, especially in such an unpredictable field. However, if he keeps his nose in front of O’Mahony he should scrape home on transfers. Labour’s standard bearer in Mayo, Castlebarbased Harry Barrett, took two per cent in both polls. It’s a good starting point for the Erris native who is looking to build the Labour base in Mayo. But the first preference tallies are only the prologue to most election tales. The twists and turns begin with the distribution of the second, third and subsequent preferences. The reality is that no pundit would be sufficiently brave - or foolish - to predict the outcome of Election 2007 in Mayo based on these polls. And this writer certainly isn’t going to try!

What is clear, though, is that the Fianna Fáil vote has fractured around the county while the Fine Gael vote is holding firm at 50 per cent plus. The problem for Fine Gael is that the vast majority of their vote is shared between two candidates - Kenny and Ring. Fianna Fáil, on the other hand, have seen their vote collapse to just 25 per cent in the TG4 poll, a truly remarkable demise in the fortunes of a party that once held four out of six seats in Co Mayo. But there is a long road to be travelled in this election campaign and the findings of these two polls will count for little when next May rolls around. It’s a bit like league football - the winter results matters little when the summer championship begins. And each of the eleven candidates in Mayo will know that the championship fare is still a long way off. A lot can change in the interim.

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