THE release of two opinion polls has predicted a heated election battle in the five-seater constituency of Mayo, with Deputy Beverley Flynn in real danger of losing her seat while newcomer, Dara Calleary, is in prime position. The two polls released at the weekend were the Millward Brown/IMS poll, published in the Irish Mail on Sunday, and the TNS/MRBI poll commissioned by Nuacht RTE and broadcast on Nuacht TG4.
Both polls indicate increased support for Fine Gael in the stronghold of the party leader Enda Kenny with both Kenny and his colleague Michael Ring claiming the majority of first preference votes, ensuring a safe return on the first count.
The opinion polls now point towards the retention of two seats by Fine Gael and a furious contest between four candidates for the last three seats.
Mayo is the first constituency to come under the microscope ahead of the General Election with some light now shed on the intriguing political landscape, home to several high-profile candidates.
Both polls have been much anticipated and while they return distinctive conclusions, the two share central predictions: a heated election battle in Mayo and the dramatic decrease in the county’s Fianna Fáil vote.
According to the Millward Brown/IMS poll published in the Irish Mail on Sunday the over-whelming conclusion is that Mayo support for Fine Gael is on a steady increase with the party now on the verge of taking an historic third Dail seat in the county. Figures gathered reveal that the opposition are now within one percentage point of obtaining the triple crown in Kenny’s home constituency. Support for Fianna Fáil is on the decrease.
Fine Gael were found to be on 50 per cent support, an increase of 13 per cent since 2002. Fianna Fáil is down 13 points at 27 per cent.
The poll predicts that leader Enda Kenny and current Deputy Michael Ring will both be elected on the first count, topping the poll with 25 per cent and 21 per cent respectively. Fianna Fáil candidate John Carty comes in third on 12 per cent. According to Sunday’s poll, Independents Beverley Flynn and Dr Jerry Cowley and Fine Gael’s Michelle Mulherin likely fight out the dogged contest for the final two seats.
The first poll was conducted by Millward Brown/IMS as a comparison with Dublin South East.
A sample of 468 adults was polled at 36 locations throughout Mayo.
While Fine Gael will be pleased that should an election be held this month, both Enda Kenny and Michael Ring would be returned with relative ease, the poll does indicate that the impressive personal tallies of Kenny and Ring could cost the party a third seat. They will now need to implement a strong vote-management strategy to avoid this.
One aspect will be quite disheartening for the opposition party: the poor performance of John O’Mahony who was earmarked for a third Fine Gael seat, with Michelle Mulherin now tipped to have the best chance.
The Nuacht RTÉ poll was published on Sunday night, conducted by TNS/MRBI, carries the same trend as the IMS findings published on Sunday morning in Irish Mail on Sunday.
According to the findings, two out of the five sitting TDs, Michael Ring and Enda Kenny, could take two seats with ease, but if a General Election was to take place this month, a third seat for Fine Gael would hang in the balance. It seems the remaining three seats will be the prizes in a furious battle between four candidates.
A total of 418 people responded to the survey with Fine Gael’s Michael Ring taking the lion’s share of the first preference votes on 24 per cent, followed closely by party leader Enda Kenny on 20 per cent.
Fianna Fáil candidate Dara Calleary comes in third in the poll with an 11 per cent share of number one votes. Polling the best of the Fianna Fáil candidates, the new Ballina-based runner outdoes party colleague John Carty, currently Fianna Fáil’s only sitting TD, who has nine per cent.
Independent contender Dr Jerry Cowley is on level par also with nine per cent while Independent Beverly Flynn and Sinn Féin’s Gerry Murray rank with six per cent of the vote.
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