TO borrow the phrase cleverly invented by An Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern’s spin-doctors during his re-election campaign of five years ago, ‘A lot done, more to do’, can probably be adopted by all the candidates and each of the political parties preparing to do battle in the heated constituency of Mayo in the forthcoming General Election, if this redc poll carries any weight.

Initial reading of today’s specially commissioned poll seems straightforward and relatively uncomplicated.

The prospect of electing a first ever Mayo-based Taoiseach in Castlebar’s Enda Kenny weighs heavily on the mind of the electorate as indicated by a dramatic surge in Fine Gael support from 38 per cent in 2002 to a massive 50 per cent now. Fianna Fáil support is directly affected, falling to it’s lowest ever standing at 27 per cent within a constituency it once considered a stronghold (when consistently returning 4 of the 6 seats), yet newcomer Dara Calleary provides North Mayo with a national voice once more after five years in political wilderness, and Independent, Deputy Jerry Cowley (who took the Ballina seat last time), is under severe pressure with his vote plummeting by 6 percentage points to just 8 per cent of first preferences, while Mayo, it seems, remains loyal and steadfast in it’s support of the Flynn Dynasty, as Independent Beverly looks odds on, not only to retain her seat in Dáil Eireann, but to increase her share of the vote.

So there you have it - Fine Gael up, Fianna Fáil down, Independents up slightly, Sinn Fein unchanged and Labour take 1 per cent of the market share. Simple and straightforward? Not a chance - the result of this poll is much complex and multifaceted and deserves much deeper probing, analysis and study.

So will Enda Kenny and Fine Gael be beaming at the outcome of this poll and will Bertie Ahern be left reeling in the reality that the Government’s popularity is deteriorating rapidly within one of the key constituencies of the election? Ironically the most sleepless nights are likely to be spent in Castlebar and not Drumcondra!

Why, you might ask? Put simply, this opinion poll borders on disastrous for Enda Kenny’s ambitions and aspiration to govern the country. It goes without saying that the dramatic rise in his own personal vote, up by over 100 per cent, is welcome news for the opposition leader, but it also points to a serious deficiency in the party’s overall vote management strategy with FG failing to regain the third seat they held prior to polling day in 2002. Kenny, in some respects, is a victim of his own popularity, and that of poll-topper Michael Ring, and with John O’Mahony and Michelle Mulherin languishing precariously close to the bottom of the poll, the wisdom of running the Mayo football boss comes into focus.

Coming in at a lowly four per cent, his share of the vote is less than half that which failed to re-elect Jim Higgins last time - had they ran three can -didates, Kenny, Ring and Mulherin, perhaps the prospects of the third seat would be more plausible. It’s interesting too, that by the time O’Mahony is eliminated at the sixth count, a whopping 50 per cent of his papers are non-transferable and with neighbouring candidate John Carty and Independents Beverly Flynn and Jerry Cowley accounting for a further 28 per cent, the slim hopes for Michelle Mulherin are completely extinguished with Carty and Cowley some way ahead in the race for the final seat.

Further anguish for Kenny and FG is the fact that Fianna Fáil, despite their vote being down, actually gains in terms of representation with newcomer Dara Calleary joining John Carty TD in Leinster House. Furthermore it must be pointed out that the fall in their popularity coincides with the fact that last time out they ran four candidates and when Beverley Flynn’s share of this poll is added to that of the three FF contenders, that massive loss is just 2 per cent in reality.

Possibly of greatest significance, in the overall context of this particular poll, is the performance of Ballinabased candidate Dara Calleary.

Coming in at 11 per cent, with just Ring and Kenny ahead of him, Calleary’s positive result, coupled with the decline in support for Jerry Cowley, clearly indicates a Ballina/North Mayo hunger for direct representation after May’s election.

Cowley, almost universally regarded as the man who took Tom Moffatt ‘out’ last time, sees his popularity plummet, with a projected loss of over 3,700 first preference votes. He does still retain the capacity to transfer heavily, however, particularly from fellow Shell-to-Sea campaigners, Labour’s Harry Barrett and Sinn Féin’s Gerry Murray, once they are eliminated, while he also gains from John O’Mahony’s exit. Whether he can gain quite enough to pip John Carty remains to be seen.

Calleary supporters, meanwhile, will be mindful of the fact that Tom Moffatt polled well in terms of first preferences last time, but struggled to pick up significant transfers thereafter. Calleary, too it seems ,will have his work cut out in this department. While every other candidate takes a share of the Ring/Kenny surplus, and the Barrett/Murray elimination, Calleary remains stagnant until benefiting from the transfer of party colleague Frank Chambers’ votes at the fifth count. Ironically the transfers of fellow Ballina candidate, Michelle Mulherin, see him over the line at the final count.

The key for Calleary now is to ensure his feet remain firmly grounded and that any hint of complacency in the North Mayo region is steadfast-ly removed from the mindset of the electorate.

An elected member of Fianna Fáil’s National Executive for the past decade and running a high profile campaign, with no fewer than seven government ministers (including An Taoiseach) visiting the area since his selection at convention, Calleary will be hopeful that a town that once returned two TDs, will realise his potential to deliver to a region that feels it has lost out in the past five years.

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